12/15 First Call

What?
Significant Icing event. Moderate Icing event and Light Icing event
Some Accumulating Snows

Where?
Significant Icing: Immediate Piedmont: Maryland, Virginia, North Carolina
Major Icing: Immediate Piedmont to 35 miles west of I-95; Maryland, Virginia
North Carolina : West Central NC
Light Icing: I-95 to about 35 miles west of I-95: West Central NC
Snows: Higher elevations of Northern Virginia and Western Maryland. A large Part of Pennsylvania, West 40 miles west of I-95

When? Starting Thursday Early Morning South overspreading northern areas by Late Morning

Comments: Tough call in many ways. A lot of precip will fall over very shallow cold air. The Warm air appears to truly Surge over the area and warm areas close to or above freezing. There is a chance for significant rains as well. If things stay frozen, ice storm conditions could be reached by a lot more areas than what I am indicating on my first guess map. May issue a follow up call tomorrow night.. but my guess may be all the time I have to do.

http://mawinterweather.blogspot.com

Of Note: Large potential Snow Storm early next week!

12/8 - 12/9 Post Mortem

Not as bad off as last storm locally... expanded areas i definitely got wrong..

 

Predicted: Charlottesville: 3-5" - Sleet
Actual: 1-2" Big bust!
Predicted: Roanoke: 1-3" Icing concerns. May reach Ice Storm criteria
Actual: See a report of .25" of ice and .75 inches of sleet. no snow.. Ice correct
Predicted: Lynchburg 1"  Icing concerns. May reach Ice Storm criteria
Actuals: No snow. .20 of ice mainly trees
Predicted: Richmond: Rain
Actual: Rain
Predicted: Fredericksburg: 2-4" Snow.. then Sleet and Freezing Rain
Actual: .8" Way off!
DC National: 2-4" Snow.. then Sleet and Freezing Rain
Actual: 1.6" .. busted.. but could have been worse!
Predicted: Baltimore: 3-5" Snow.. then Sleet and Freezing Rain
Actual: 3-4" range.. not too bad
Predicted: Dulles: 3-5" - Sleet a real possibility.
Actual: 2.0" Bad.. but not horrible
Predicted: Hagerstown: 4-8" (maybe 10")

Actual: 4-6" No 10" though. Not too bad
Predicted: Purcellville: 4-8"
Actual: 3-4" A miss

 

So in general.. over predicted.. Odd scenarios last night as the models came in colder, but ice still occurred and in more regions and sooner than thought.

 

Good analyses of the storm last evening provided by the first Met on the board! A friend and old coworker!
 

 

12/8 - 12/9 Final Call

Charlottesville: 3-5" - Sleet a real possibility. Starting 8-10pm Roanoke: 1-3" Icing concerns. May reach Ice Storm criteria Lynchburg 1" Icing concerns. May reach Ice Storm criteria Richmond: Rain
Fredericksburg: 2-4" Snow.. then Sleet and Freezing Rain Starting 8-11pmDC National: 2-4" Snow.. then Sleet and Freezing Rain Starting 8-11pmBaltimore: 3-5" Snow.. then Sleet and Freezing Rain Starting 9-Midnight
Dulles: 3-5" - Sleet a real possibility. 8-11pm
Hagerstown: 4-8" (maybe 10") Starting 8-11pm Purcellville: 4-8" Starting 8-11pm

Please note.. this is a dynamic system.. it could compensate for some warmth that it is en-training off the ocean and cause places to shift between snow and sleet and freezing rain. If we get Thunderstorms( a possibility) we will see higher totals of precip in whatever type is falling on you! That could be interesting!

12/8 - 12/9 First GUESS!

Quick hitting snowstorm will commence in the region later tomorrow through noon Friday. Southern 1/3rd of the region should see a mix to sleet and freezing rain and then rain. Norther 2/3rds a General 3-6" but chances for 2 things.. A dry slotting during energy transfers and a chance for thundersnow or convective banding which could either lessen ior intensify snow amounts..

Much to watch.. Take this as aGuess! That is all it is!

12/5 - 12/6 Storm Post Mortem

12/5/2005 Storm Post mortem:

 

Yes, I busted: Some totals came closer than it appeared.. My list and actuals:

 

Charlottesville: 5-10" Starting 7-10am

Actual: 2.0” (Big Bust!)

 

Roanoke: 5-10"+ (Some spots 12") Starting 4-9am

Actual: maybe 2-3”

 

Lynchburg 4-8" Starting 4-9am

Actual: maybe 2-3”

 

Richmond: 3-6" (Lots of Mixing with rain)  Starting 9am - noon

Actual: Not bad: 3-6” seems pretty good

 

Fredericksburg: 5-10" Starting 10am to 1pm

Actual: Not bad: Maybe 4-6”

 

DC National: 5-10" Starting 11am - 1pm

Actual: 2-4”

 

Baltimore: 5-10" Startng 11am - 2pm

Actual: 2-4” (bad)

 

IAD: 5-10" Starting 11am-1pm

Actual: 2-4” (Bad)

 

Hagerstown: 4-8" Starting 11am-1pm

Actual: 1-3” (Bad)

 

Purcellville: 4-8" Starting 11-1pm

Actual: 1-3” (Bad)

 

Overall: Bad bust! Would be an F If I were graded!

 

What I learned:

1. Do not go against ALL models unless the reality of radars and the situation is unfolding (Like January 2005)
2. Eastward shift seems to bean issue this year… eastward and shearing
3. Shave some of the snow totals by 1-3” in general when looking at one of the trusted models.

 

I will use this in my next predictions which will start Tomorrow NIGHT

 

 

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12/5 - 12/6 Final Call

This really Bucks the Models! Serious bust potential here!

This still looks pretty good, but start times!

Charlottesville: 5-10" Starting 7-10am

Roanoke: 5-10"+ (Some spots 12") Starting 4-9am

Lynchburg 4-8" Starting 4-9am

Richmond: 3-6" (Lots of Mixing with rain) Starting 9am - noon

Fredericksburg: 5-10" Starting 10am to 1pm

DC National: 5-10" Starting 11am - 1pm

Baltimore: 5-10" Startng 11am - 2pm

IAD: 5-10" Starting 11am-1pm

Hagerstown: 4-8" Starting 11am-1pm

Purcellville: 4-8" Starting 11-1pm

Few things on this:

1. Think Storm will be further west than models

2. See good Wrap around/deformation zone possible

3. Expecting a closer to the coast pull ultimately

12/5 - 12/6 First CALL

Ok. This is my first call, likely final call after next Model runs.Giving some Locations and amounts!
Charlottesville: 5-10" Starting Early Afternoon
Roanoke: 5-10"+ (Some spots 12") Starting 7-9am
Lynchburg 4-8" Starting 7-9am
Richmond: 3-6" Starting 9am - noon
Fredericksburg: 5-10" Starting noon to 3pm
DC National: 5-10" Starting 3-6pm
Baltimore: 5-10" Startng 5-8pm
IAD: 5-10" Starting 3-6pm
Hagerstown: 4-8" Starting 3-6pm
Purcellville: 4-8" Starting 3-6pm

Few things on this:
1. Think Storm will be further west
2. See good Wrap around/deformation zone possible
3. Expecting a closer to the coast pull ultimately

Second Guess Dec 5th/6th event!

I am betting on a pretty big blockbuster here! Only concern would be track.. but I think plenty of dynamics get involved and push it high and precip far west!

Final call will be issued Tomorrow later afternoon or evening. Sorry, busy day will preclude sooner. May send updates if things change dramatically!

12/3 Winter Weather Alert! For TONIGHT's storm

Final Call map out at http://mawinterweather.blogspot.com

 

Second storm looking like a classic I-95 Storm now!

 

 

Great School in Northern Virginia. http://www.ambleside.org

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Final Call 12/3 Event

I am concerned about the Valleys seeing an Ice Storm. Expect Winter Storm Warnings for some Far western Counties.

Storm for Monday is becoming a CLASSIC winter Storm.. I-95 cities could be very white. Will post updates on this later this evening!

First Guess! 12/5 Event

MAY REALLY SHIFT! Stand By!

First Real Snow Chances for the Region Monday. Appetizer tomorrow Night.

First Real Snow Chances for the Region Monday. Appetizer tomorrow Night.

 

What? 2 Systems will affect the region between Today and Tuesday with Winter weather

 

System 1: No big deal, but a burst of snow and sleet should occur tomorrow evening that should last until Midnight.

 

System 2: Significant chance of a real snowstorm.

 

Where?

System 1: Northern 2/3rds of Virginia and Western Maryland. The Snow should change to rain for most regions, but North Central Maryland and the Northwestern part of Virginia.

 

System 2: All regions could see some snow, but again, best chances appear to be northern 2/3rds of Virginia, and western 2/3rds of Maryland. Snow should overtake the region and then a mix to rain, very quickly southern regions, and slowly a creep northward and westward. Right now would call for I-95 areas north of Frederickburg to see a moderate event, while areas west of this by 15 to 20 miles will see a potentially major storm.

 

How Much?

System 1: Dusting most areas at best, but 1 to as much as 3 inches in the areas staying snow or a mix. Grassy and elevated surfaces only.

 

System 2: (First Guess here) Potential exists for the Moderate areas to see 3 to 5 inches and the Major areas (mainly snow) to see 5 to 10 inches with some 12 inch readings in the higher elevations and immediate piedmont areas of Northern Virginia (North of Charlottesville and  western Maryland).

 

When?

System 1: Saturday late day through Midnight for most regions, but the areas mentioned where accumulations could occur will be through Sunday Morning.

 

System 2: Sunday Night through Monday.. possibly stretching to early Tuesday morning.

 

Comments: System 1 will not be a big deal. System 2 seriously could be, but we are early in the game on this! Shifts in the track obviously mean chances for more or less snow. As models converge on the system, updates will come. Also of note, roads are warm so salt will do a good job on helping melt the snow.

 

Expect snow impact Maps possibly tonight or tomorrow morning.. First Guess on Accumulations afternoon or evening tomorrow.

 

All for Now!

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11/12 2005-2006 Winter Outlook

2005-2006 Winter Outlook

 

I will make this more formal soon!

 

I am on board with a normal to slightly above normal winter. However, the SST's off the east coast and in the Gulf I think will (and have already proven to do so) aid to very moist storms up the East Coast. With that in mind, in the brief colder snaps (I think most will last for about a week.if not briefer. like we have seen) I see very energetic storms forming with abilities for Severe weather in the Southeast and also strong Nor'easters. So, if cold enough, the storms that do occur should have great potential for large amounts of precip and of course Snow! So, snow should be above normal in the Piedmont and interior Upper Mid Atlantic (VA, MD, PA, NJ) and New england, with coastal plains dealing with a lot of turnover or mix scenarios.. not surprising, as strong storms should throw warm air off the oceans inland.. and with warmer sea temps, this does not look good for areas east of I-95 in the Mid Atlantic in general.

Restating: Brief cold snaps and large storms.. a few storms should make above normal snow piedmont and higher elevations of the Mid Atlantic, and also in interior New England. Normal to slightly above normal temperatures overall.

Factors considered:
Slow Snow cover expansion in Canada (Just a trend I am watching)
Cold pool off Pacific NW Coast (Not good)
Warmer waters (at least for now) off East (Strengthens East Coast Storms)
Weather trends seen this fall. (Drought buster and Tropical systems)
ENSO.. Not a factor this year
Not a big analog person as I have seen this hurt some forecasts dramatically! (Last year comes to mind)
And yes.. the watch of other meteorologist's predictions. (Helps confirm or challenge my thinking)

 

That is it. I will make it more fromal soon!

 

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It is becoming increasingly possible that a period of wet snow will end the rain that occurs overnight. Amounts, and whether or not anything will accumulate are not clear at this time. This may just be a period of snow with little or no accumulations, but I felt it would be prudent to alert people to the possibilities since there is a chance some accumulations could occur from this event.

 

Areas most at risk for accumulations are the I-95 corridor and east up to just inland from the coast.

 

If accumulations appear likely a more important alert will be issued!

 

Enjoy the warmth today!

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3/7 Some Snow Alert

It is becoming increasingly possible that a period of wet snow will end the rain that occurs overnight. Amounts, and whether or not anything will accumulate are not clear at this time. This may just be a period of snow with little or no accumulations, but I felt it would be prudent to alert people to the possibilities since there is a chance some accumulations could occur from this event.

 

Areas most at risk for accumulations are the I-95 corridor and east up to just inland from the coast.

 

If accumulations appear likely a more important alert will be issued!

 

Enjoy the warmth today!

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12/28 Final Call

Big Winter Storm Commencing!

What?

Major Winter Storm

When?

From Tonight Through Late Tuesday Night, though bulk will fall next 24 hours

How Much?

I have my final call map here: http://www.midatlanticweather.com/images/2_28_2005_F.gif

Some Locations:

Hagerstown: 8-10

Dulles: 8-10

Washington DC: 6-8

Fairfax: 8-10

Charlottesville: 8-10

Lynchburg: 4-6 some Freezing Rain

Roanoke: 8-10

Wytheville: 8-10

Danville: 1-3 Freezing Rain Threat

Richmond: 1-3 To Rain

Fredericksburg: 4-6

NOTE: These could be underdone! There will be Thundersnows tomorrow and I could really be
under doing the amounts! I am playing it safe with eth QPF from models Also, the area expecting a large mix.. if it is snow.. that will be much higher!

Concerns:

1.
Models suddenly warmer and less precip. Is this true? Doubt it looking at Radar.

2.
Really, my concern is that the precip totals could be too low!

3.
May see a regeneration of snow again tomorrow night as the Upper level system comes through

4.
Winds will start to be an issue tomorrow night… This could mean we get to Blizzard Conditions? That will need toe be assessed tomorrow and more likely north of our region of the country

5.
Far western VA and Maryland (western facing slopes)could see a serious amount of snow tomorrow night into Tuesday from wrap around and that upper level disturbance.

All for now.

Please join the forum and give your updates on the storm!http://www.midatlanticweather.com/bb/

2/25 BIG Storm Monday Could Bring BIG SNOW!

Big Storm Monday likely to start as Snow for areas central and west and may stay that way west of I-95, especially higher elevations!

 

I will do a full update later tonight or early tomorrow morning! Mountains, get ready! West of I-95 for the Northern half of the area! Stay alert!

 

If, by chance, things line up, there could be locally 1 to 2 feet of snow in areas! The higher your elevation, the more concerned you need to be!

 

More to come!

 

All for Now!

 

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2/24 DC/MD/VA SNow Final Call

Snow Alert Final Call

What: moderate to potentially heavy Snow event.

Where: Today we had a major Shift North. Southern VA likely to see rain. Northern Virginia and Maryland will see Moderate to heavy accumulations

Final Calls for some select locations.

Dulles – 4-8

DC – 3-6

Baltimore - 4-8

Hagerstown - 6-10

Charlottesville – 3-6

Orange – 3-6

Fredericksburg – 3-6

Spotsylvania – 3-6

Ashland – 1-3

Richmond – 1-3

Roanoke – 1-3

Lynchburg - 2-4

See Map: http://www.midatlanticweather.com/Images/2_24_2005_f.gif

When: Starting: 2 am Southwest. Overspreading the north by 9 am. Expecting heavier snow between 10 am and 3 pm .. may see a lull and then a regeneration of light snow tomorrow evening and night in the North.

Concerns:

1.
Limiting factor may be the convection to our south

2.
Mix may make it to DC suburbs south of town

3.
Could see cold air wrap into system and give some snow back to south central regions

4. Snow deformation line/wrap around possible Central Maryland into Northern Virginia

2/24 Second Guess:Note Shift North

Note the shift to the North. This may not be done.

First Guess

2/22 DC/MD/VA Snow Alert for Thursday

Snow Alert

 

What?: Moderate Snow Event

Where? Most of Virginia and Maryland

When? Thursday

How Much?

2-4 Northern Virginia and Maryland areas

4-8 Central Virginia

2-4 NC/VA Border with Sleet and Freezing rain involved especially coast!

Could see heavier amounts of 10 inches in parts of the region!

 

Accumulations vary North to south and not east to west in this event. (Further north the less the amounts)

 

Concerns:

1. Northern cut off of precip could be sharp so Northern Maryland could see far less
2. Higher Ratios could up the Northern Virginia and Maryland amounts.
3. Precip could come further north than what models show.. but not by much!
4. Low may not come far enough north (low risk, but there)

 

OF NOTE: Cold air is not a big issue with this event as the last 2 events, thus snowfall much more likely in this event

 

Hope for Snowfall maps later tonight!

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2/22 DC/MD/VA Snow Alert

Snow Alert

What?: Moderate Snow Event

Where? Most of Virginia and Maryland

When? Thursday

How Much?

2-4 Northern Virginia and Maryland areas

4-8 Central Virginia

2-4 NC/VA Border with Sleet and Freezing rain involved especially coast!

Could see heavier amounts of 10 inches in parts of the region!

Accumulations vary North to south and not east to west in this event. (Further north the less the amounts)

Concerns:

1. Northern cut off of precip could be sharp so Northern Maryland could see far less


2. Higher Ratios could up the Northern Virginia and Maryland amounts.


3. Precip could come further north than what models show.. but not by much!


4. Low may not come far enough north (low risk, but there)

OF NOTE: Cold air is not a big issue with this event as the last 2 events, thus snowfall much more likely in this event

Hope for Snowfall maps later tonight!

2/20 Snow Alert

Snow Event Diminished

What: Light Snow Possible
Where: Northern VA and Central MD Immediate Piedmont to areas just east of I-95
When: Sunday afternoon through Monday Morning
How Much: At most, I could sonly see a 1-3” snow based on models. Areas really DC to Dulles To Baltimore and north have the greatest threat of accumulations with higher amounts north. Isolated 4” near the PA/MD border would not surprise me. See http://www.midatlanticweather.com/2_22_2005_f.gif
Concerns: It appears warmth will really work fast to erode cold air. I will continue to monitor. Seems really cold, but strong southerly winds are at play here so a quick turnover would not surprise me!

Snow/Wintry Event More Likely

What: Light to Moderate Snow
Where: Northern VA and Central MD Immediate Piedmont to areas just east of I-95
When: Sunday afternoon through Monday Morning
How Much: Refer to http://www.midatlanticweather.com/2_20_2005_.gif looks like 2-4” immediate Piedmont North of Charlottesville up through Maryland. 1-3” I-95 areas Fredericksburg and north.
Concerns: I hope I am not overdoing precip. Still could have to shift this north if warmer air is more powerful.

2/18 DC/MD/VA WInter Weather Alert

Winter Weather Alert. Possible storm..

What: Looks more likely that a Small to moderate snow will affect parts of the region.

Where: the Northern areas of Virginia and Maryland especially piedmont areas

How Much: A general 1-4 inch snowfall is possible with some amounts to 6+ inches in the far Northern VA and the immediate piedmont of Maryland. A changeover to light sleet and freezing rain is possible near the end of the storm with plain rain further South and East, and eventually a cold drizzle or light rain most places by Monday Afternoon.

When:
Starting Sunday Afternoon and ending Monday Morning.

Why will this happen, why might it not:

Models are really split on the scenario and this split brings a wide range of solutions. Best bet is a start as a mix of snow and rain to mainly snow northern areas. A quick turnover to rain any outhern areas and a slower turnover north. The idea is that the warm air will not overwhelm the storm before a coastal locks colder air in for northern areas. The coastal is a big factor in this forecast and it may not form. Consistently one model has shown a much warmer pattern and another a colder. Which one is right? If we compromise, I would say not a big storm for many. That is why my range is so large. 1 to 4 inches in the north. I have to say a possible 6 inch plus because if the colder model wins a more significant system could affect the region. One other note, precip amounts on the colder model has been very wrong with storm totals in this region this winter usually favoring more precip than less. I was burned in January and then again the next storm. I have to be more conservative this time. This is my first guess too!

More to come.

02/02 Southwestern Virginia Snow Alert!

Southwestern Virginia Snow Alert!

Between Tonight and Friday Morning, as Much as 8” of snow could fall in the Higher elevations of Southwestern Virginia. Areas specifically west of Lynchburg to Martinsville and east of Bristol and Bluefield. Even at lower elevations as much as 3-6” of snow is possible.

There is also the possibility of mixed rain and snow and some sleet as far north as a Harrisonburg to Frederickburg to Salisbury. Areas south of this line will have periods of Rain and snow mixed (especially at night). Southern Virginia, especially areas close to the above mentioned area of Southwestern Virginia, could see some light accumulations of 1 to 3 inches.

This situation could change and move precipitation more northward or even southward. Models continue to track the systems poorly. Also, cold air is not in great abundance, so whereas the higher elevations of Southwestern Virginia seem Likely to get good snows, lower elevations could mix and be primarily rain at times. This scenario is not easy to predict.
All for now!

A lot of potential may result in serious forecast busts! This is my best call for now!

Please see the last call that I am making unless I see significant shift to the north on precipitation and the coastal low. Totals in the South Central could be overdone if sleet and freezing rain become the dominant type. This is obvious, but a real quandary. Also, as much as the models are locked on what the northward movement of totals will be, I keep having a nagging feeling a lot more precip will make it north. That may be all it is.. a feeling.. or my dinner! HA! Anyways, this represents the last snow threat I see for about a week to 10 days! But, as I said before, I think this is usually peak time for snow storms, so things may really change.

Again, Snow will start later tomorrow afternoon and then tomorrow night.
Things should be done late Sunday UNLESS the coastal storm does something more than what is shown now!

http://www.midatlanticweather.com/01_29_2005_f.gif

Please sign up, give thoughts about, and post observations at http://www.midatlanticweather.com/bb/

Weekend Winter Storm Update

I think someone in Virginia is going to see a good snow from this, but the snow will have a very hard time overcoming a powerful High that is to our north.

This blocking High does 2 things:
1. Keeps marginally cold air in place
2. Acts as a road block to northward movement of a precipitation.

That being said, there is always a LOT of moisture from a southern storm and that will need to be watched!

Current thoughts keep accumulating snow just to the south of the Maryland line (except lower southern Maryland) and south of the DC metro areas. There easily could be a more northward trend, but this will need to be monitored and models will likely not be that great. If I were to bet largest amounts I would say North of the VA/NC border up to just North of Richmond and west of areas just to the east of I-95 will see the most significant precip. Gut says 3-6" with isolated 6"+ amounts especially towards the Southwestern part of the state. Ice and sleet will fall on and off throughout the event when precipitation is lighter.

A map really should be drawn and I hope to get one out later tonight.

01/27 DC/MD/VA Winter Weather Alert

Ice storm threat for Southwest and South Central Virginia. All types of precip likely this weekend for the rest of the area!

 

Due to family commitments this will be very quick.

 

A southern system will override cold air that is in place this weekend. This will set up a mix of snow, and then mainly sleet and freeing rain especially in Southwestern and south central Virginia. The rest of the area will see light precipitation. This situation will be monitored as details become a it clearer. The precipitation threat is mainly Saturday Night through Sunday.

 

More to come tonight on this threat!

 

All for now!

1/22 Snow Alert Update

Concerns about track of low and possible sleet and Freezing rain Central regions on my forecast map.. For latest thoughts and discussion today you can visit http://www.midatlanticweather.com/bb/ . PLEASE add you observations and thoughts.

 

FYI.. 8:15 am and light flurries in Sterling VA

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Last Call

 

Highlighting major areas: (Think of regions around these points, not the location itself)

Hagerstown: 4-8 some 10+

Baltimore: 6-12 some 14+

Washington DC National: 5-10 some 10+

Washington DC Dulles: 4-8 some 10+

Stafford: 3-6 with icing issues

Fredericksburg: :  3-6 with icing issues

Charlottesville: 3-6 with icing issues

Richmond: 2-4 with icing concerns.

Wakefield: 1-2”

Norfolk: 1-2”. Risk of some backlash

Roanoke: 2-4 with icing concerns

Lynchburg: 3-6 with icing issues

SEE MAP: http://www.midatlanticweather.com/Images/01_22_2005_final.gif for my First Guess!

 

Quick updates:

 

Size of Storm: Areas in northeast could easily see a lot more if back lash from coastal gets involved. Also, adjustments could occur if system happens to dig more.

When: Saturday morning and overnight, though mostly over by midnight, except Northeast. Will be very cold and windy.

How Much: My last thoughts  http://www.midatlanticweather.com/Images/01_22_2005_final.gif

 

Concerns:

1. There are models showing a very substantial event in areas I am being somewhat conservative on.
2. Location of upper features are still not totally clear, and there could be a serious dry slot limiting snow in Northwester VA! Some people may really be surprised at smaller amounts than expected!

 

All for now!

 

 

1/21 DC/MD/VA WINTER STORM FIRST GUESS!

Late but I wanted to digest for a while. I hope people can view web sites because to describe what I am thinking would be hard!

 

Highlighting major areas: (Think of regions around these points, not the location itself)

Hagerstown: 5-10 some 14+

Baltimore: 4-8 some 10+

Washington DC National: 4-8 some 10+

Washington DC Dulles: 4-8 some 10+

Stafford: 3-6 with icing issues

Fredericksburg: :  3-6 with icing issues

Charlottesville: 3-6 with icing issues

Richmond: 2-4 with icing concerns. Some concerns of second wave

Wakefield: 2-4 with some icing concerns. Risk of second wave snows

Norfolk: 2-4. Risk of second wave snowstorm

Roanoke: 2-4 with icing concerns

Lynchburg: 3-6 with icing issues

SEE MAP: http://www.midatlanticweather.com/Images/01_22_2005.gif for my First Guess!

 

Quick updates:

 

Size of Storm: Still in question! Second wave feature is a serious factor. Areas it hits may be in excess of 8 inches on top of what they have now. Initial storm has about what you see on the map for potential, BUT.. snow ratios may really push these totals up!

When: Saturday Afternoon and overnight. Sunday could be serious for Southeastern and eastern Virginia.

How Much: Kind of a guessing game now. My best guess is at http://www.midatlanticweather.com/Images/01_22_2005.gif

 

Concerns:

1. There are models starting to hint at a more substantial event. Is this a trend?
2. Location of upper features are still not totally clear
3. That secondary storm has serious potential and serious consequences for whomever it affects!

 

All for now!

 

 

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2 Systems to deal with the next Few Days! First: Snow likely TONIGHT southern half of Virginia, maybe a brief period in the north! Next, the system this weekend is going to be VERY HARD to get specific on. Every time a get a sense of what is going to happen, enough changes to mess me up.

First System:

Size: 1-2 inches not out of the question.
When: Tonight
Where: Lynchburg to Richmond to Waldorf and south have the best chance for some accumulations. Dusting possible north of here.

Second System Update:

Size: Somewhat hard to tell.
When: SATURDAY.. I forgot to say this last time.
Where? Not 100% sure.

Models continue to give mixed signals. I still say snow will fall. I am not so sure I am clear on where axis of heavier snows will line up.

 
Concerns still exist:

1.      Phasing could come back into play, which would likely re-appear today, BUT NOW is pretty unlikely. If so, mixing would get involved in more areas and higher amounts where snow was the primary precip type.

2.      A coastal system will take over at some point. Though this could increase snow amounts, I have seen these systems become, what I like to call, Piedmont Robbers! The energy during transfer takes the heavy snow band and jumps the piedmont areas.

3.      The Coastal system MAY be close enough for a backlash snow which could greatly increase amounts somewhere (Maybe east of I-95!). This will have to be watched

4.      There may also be more Arctic air involved which would increase snow ratios. All that means would be more snow would accumulate from small amounts of precip.

All for now!

1/20 DC/VA/MD Weather Outlook and Snow ALERT

I will watch for changes, but it is looking pretty certain that a significant but not historic system will affect the region.

 

Bottom line, the system that will come through does not appear to phase with other systems which had been important for a serious amount of precipitation. Without this phasing the amounts will be decent, but not historic.

 

Taking models right now (Obviously forecast will be adjusted if needed)

An area north of and including Roanoke to Richmond to Waldorf will likely see 4-8 inches with some bigger spots approaching 12 inches. Reason for some higher amounts in some areas will be the possibility of  convective banding of snow or even thundersnow! There will be mixing concerns along the coast and southern regions after an initial period of snow.  

 

Concerns:

1. Phasing could come back into play, which would likely re-appear today. If so, mixing would get involved in more areas and higher amounts where snow was the primary precip type.
2. A coastal system will take over at some point. Though this could increase snow amounts, I have seen these systems become, what I like to call, Piedmont Robbers! The energy during transfer takes the heavy snow band and jumps the piedmont areas.
3. The Coastal system MAY be close enough for a backlash snow which could greatly increase amounts somewhere (Maybe east of I-95!)

 

All for now!

 

Remember, Mid Atlantic Weather Forecasts ae not OFFICIAL forecasts and should never be used to make life saving or property saving decisions. Please cnsult with official government forecast offices or other weather outlets for these decisions!

 

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1/18 DC/MD/VA Weather Updates

Storm Adjustments.

 

3 Systems will affect us! These are my thoughts

 

System One:

Size: Small clipper.

When: Tomorrow afternoon:

Where? North of a Charlottesville to Frederickburg to an Atlantic City line.

Amounts: There is possibility for as much as 1-2inches but 1 inch or less more likely. Further north you go, the higher the amounts. Western facing mountains could see 2-4 inches

 

System Two:

Size: Small clipper.

When: Thursday

Where? North of a Roanoke to Richmond to Salisbury Maryland line.

Amounts: 1 inch MAYBE, but northern areas. Western slopes of mountains 1-3 inches.

 

System Three: BIG ADJUSTMENTS! VERY PREMIMINARY THOUGHTS> ADJUSTMENTS LIKELY!

Size: Still significant, but likely not Historic

When: Saturday into Sunday

Where: A Shifting north trend through the day.

Southwest:  I see a snow sleet mix almost area wide a quick transition to rain. Western Slopes. Piedmont, potential Ice Storm after an initial burst of snow.

Southeast: Some snow/sleet mix, quickly mixing with and changing to freezing rain and sleet and then rain. Some LIGHT snow accumulations, some ice. Western Areas in piedmont have to watch for Ice Storm. A turn over to rain likely..possible ending as a quick shot of snow.

Northeast: Snow.. mixing with sleet and freezing rain. Significant snow accumulations and the significant Ice.

Northwest. Snow.. Heavy at times.. Significant to even possible major accumulations, but a mix likely to cut down on snow amounts.

 

 

 

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1/18 DC/MD/VA Winter Weather Alert!

Possibility of snow the next few days and again this weekend!

 

2 small system will affect the region the next 48 hours. A big Storm may affect us this weekend.

 

First System:

 

Size of system: A clipper, which usually have a hard time putting down accumulating snows east of the mountains, but this one should. These are quick hitters with snow rapidly starting and just as quickly moving on.

When? Tomorrow Afternoon

How Much?  The most out of the system would be 1-3, though western Mountains may see 2-4 inches.

Where? Right now I would say anyone north of a Roanoke to Richmond To Salisbury line could see some dusting of snow and north of a Charlottesville to Fredericksburg to Ocean City Maryland could see 1-3 inches of snow.

 

Second System:

 

Size of System: Another clipper which looks weaker than the first. Very similar to the light snow this last Sunday night.

When? Thursday Afternoon.

How Much? More flurries to a dusting of snow is also possible

Where? A dusting in the 1-3 inch area outlined above.

 

Third System:

 

Size of System: This one could be very significant to Historic depending on which model you believe. I am leaning towards at least a Major Snowstorm for part of the area with the possibility of a Historic event. Keep in mind, we have several days to go!

When? Saturday Night through Early Monday

How Much? Amounts would be futile now, but the distinct possibility of 6 inches or more is there and some models would make this something we measure in feet!

Where? Most of the region should be affected, but coastal areas could easily mix or change over to Freezing rain or even some rain.

 

 

 

All for now!

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1/16 MD/VA/DC Light Snow Alert

SORRY: Re-sent for correct date!

 

Light snow possible both in Southeastern VA and Northern Third of Virginia. Nothing looking too heavy. A dusting to an inch possible near the Pennsylvania border. Southeastern
Virginia should monitor the forecast today.

Longer term there appears a much more significant storm could affect us next weekend.

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1/6 MD/VA/DC Snow Alert

Light snow possible both in Southeastern VA and Northern Third of Virginia. Nothing looking too heavy. A dusting to an inch possible near the Pennsylvania border. Southeastern Virginia should monitor the forecast today.

 

Longer term there appears a much more significant storm could affect us next weekend.

 

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1/16 SNOW Alert!

Light snow possible both in Southeastern VA and Northern Third of Virginia. Nothing looking too heavy. A dusting to an inch possible near the Pennsylvania border. Southeastern Virginia should monitor the forecast today. Longer term there appears a much more significant storm could affect us next weekend.