12/8 - 12/9 Post Mortem

Not as bad off as last storm locally... expanded areas i definitely got wrong..

 

Predicted: Charlottesville: 3-5" - Sleet
Actual: 1-2" Big bust!
Predicted: Roanoke: 1-3" Icing concerns. May reach Ice Storm criteria
Actual: See a report of .25" of ice and .75 inches of sleet. no snow.. Ice correct
Predicted: Lynchburg 1"  Icing concerns. May reach Ice Storm criteria
Actuals: No snow. .20 of ice mainly trees
Predicted: Richmond: Rain
Actual: Rain
Predicted: Fredericksburg: 2-4" Snow.. then Sleet and Freezing Rain
Actual: .8" Way off!
DC National: 2-4" Snow.. then Sleet and Freezing Rain
Actual: 1.6" .. busted.. but could have been worse!
Predicted: Baltimore: 3-5" Snow.. then Sleet and Freezing Rain
Actual: 3-4" range.. not too bad
Predicted: Dulles: 3-5" - Sleet a real possibility.
Actual: 2.0" Bad.. but not horrible
Predicted: Hagerstown: 4-8" (maybe 10")

Actual: 4-6" No 10" though. Not too bad
Predicted: Purcellville: 4-8"
Actual: 3-4" A miss

 

So in general.. over predicted.. Odd scenarios last night as the models came in colder, but ice still occurred and in more regions and sooner than thought.

 

Good analyses of the storm last evening provided by the first Met on the board! A friend and old coworker!