Mid Atlantic Winter Weather: January 2005

Friday, January 28, 2005

A lot of potential may result in serious forecast busts! This is my best call for now!

Please see the last call that I am making unless I see significant shift to the north on precipitation and the coastal low. Totals in the South Central could be overdone if sleet and freezing rain become the dominant type. This is obvious, but a real quandary. Also, as much as the models are locked on what the northward movement of totals will be, I keep having a nagging feeling a lot more precip will make it north. That may be all it is.. a feeling.. or my dinner! HA! Anyways, this represents the last snow threat I see for about a week to 10 days! But, as I said before, I think this is usually peak time for snow storms, so things may really change.

Again, Snow will start later tomorrow afternoon and then tomorrow night.
Things should be done late Sunday UNLESS the coastal storm does something more than what is shown now!

http://www.midatlanticweather.com/01_29_2005_f.gif

Please sign up, give thoughts about, and post observations at http://www.midatlanticweather.com/bb/

Weekend Winter Storm Update

I think someone in Virginia is going to see a good snow from this, but the snow will have a very hard time overcoming a powerful High that is to our north.

This blocking High does 2 things:
1. Keeps marginally cold air in place
2. Acts as a road block to northward movement of a precipitation.

That being said, there is always a LOT of moisture from a southern storm and that will need to be watched!

Current thoughts keep accumulating snow just to the south of the Maryland line (except lower southern Maryland) and south of the DC metro areas. There easily could be a more northward trend, but this will need to be monitored and models will likely not be that great. If I were to bet largest amounts I would say North of the VA/NC border up to just North of Richmond and west of areas just to the east of I-95 will see the most significant precip. Gut says 3-6" with isolated 6"+ amounts especially towards the Southwestern part of the state. Ice and sleet will fall on and off throughout the event when precipitation is lighter.

A map really should be drawn and I hope to get one out later tonight.

Thursday, January 27, 2005

01/27 DC/MD/VA Winter Weather Alert

Ice storm threat for Southwest and South Central Virginia. All types of precip likely this weekend for the rest of the area!

Due to family commitments this will be very quick.

A southern system will override cold air that is in place this weekend. This will set up a mix of snow, and then mainly sleet and freeing rain especially in Southwestern and south central Virginia. The rest of the area will see light precipitation. This situation will be monitored as details become a it clearer. The precipitation threat is mainly Saturday Night through Sunday.

More to come tonight on this threat!

All for now!

Saturday, January 22, 2005

1/22 Snow Alert Update

Concerns about track of low and possible sleet and Freezing rain Central regions on my forecast map.. For latest thoughts and discussion today you can visit http://www.midatlanticweather.com/bb/ . PLEASE add you observations and thoughts.

FYI.. 8:15 am and light flurries in Sterling VA

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Friday, January 21, 2005

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Last Call

Highlighting major areas: (Think of regions around these points, not the location itself)

Hagerstown: 4-8 some 10+

Baltimore: 6-12 some 14+

Washington DC National: 5-10 some 10+

Washington DC Dulles: 4-8 some 10+

Stafford: 3-6 with icing issues

Fredericksburg: : 3-6 with icing issues

Charlottesville: 3-6 with icing issues

Richmond: 2-4 with icing concerns.

Wakefield: 1-2”

Norfolk: 1-2”. Risk of some backlash

Roanoke: 2-4 with icing concerns

Lynchburg: 3-6 with icing issues

SEE MAP: http://www.midatlanticweather.com/Images/01_22_2005_final.gif for my First Guess!

Quick updates:

Size of Storm: Areas in northeast could easily see a lot more if back lash from coastal gets involved. Also, adjustments could occur if system happens to dig more.

When: Saturday morning and overnight, though mostly over by midnight, except Northeast. Will be very cold and windy.

How Much: My last thoughts http://www.midatlanticweather.com/Images/01_22_2005_final.gif

Concerns:

There are models showing a very substantial event in areas I am being somewhat conservative on.
Location of upper features are still not totally clear, and there could be a serious dry slot limiting snow in Northwester VA! Some people may really be surprised at smaller amounts than expected!

All for now!

Thursday, January 20, 2005

1/21 DC/MD/VA WINTER STORM FIRST GUESS!

Late but I wanted to digest for a while. I hope people can view web sites because to describe what I am thinking would be hard!

Highlighting major areas: (Think of regions around these points, not the location itself)

Hagerstown: 5-10 some 14+

Baltimore: 4-8 some 10+

Washington DC National: 4-8 some 10+

Washington DC Dulles: 4-8 some 10+

Stafford: 3-6 with icing issues

Fredericksburg: : 3-6 with icing issues

Charlottesville: 3-6 with icing issues

Richmond: 2-4 with icing concerns. Some concerns of second wave

Wakefield: 2-4 with some icing concerns. Risk of second wave snows

Norfolk: 2-4. Risk of second wave snowstorm

Roanoke: 2-4 with icing concerns

Lynchburg: 3-6 with icing issues

SEE MAP: http://www.midatlanticweather.com/Images/01_22_2005.gif for my First Guess!

Quick updates:

Size of Storm: Still in question! Second wave feature is a serious factor. Areas it hits may be in excess of 8 inches on top of what they have now. Initial storm has about what you see on the map for potential, BUT.. snow ratios may really push these totals up!

When: Saturday Afternoon and overnight. Sunday could be serious for Southeastern and eastern Virginia.

How Much: Kind of a guessing game now. My best guess is at http://www.midatlanticweather.com/Images/01_22_2005.gif

Concerns:

There are models starting to hint at a more substantial event. Is this a trend?
Location of upper features are still not totally clear
That secondary storm has serious potential and serious consequences for whomever it affects!

All for now!

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2 Systems to deal with the next Few Days! First: Snow likely TONIGHT southern half of Virginia, maybe a brief period in the north! Next, the system this weekend is going to be VERY HARD to get specific on. Every time a get a sense of what is going to happen, enough changes to mess me up.

First System:

Size: 1-2 inches not out of the question.
When: Tonight
Where: Lynchburg to Richmond to Waldorf and south have the best chance for some accumulations. Dusting possible north of here.

Second System Update:

Size: Somewhat hard to tell.
When: SATURDAY.. I forgot to say this last time.
Where? Not 100% sure.

Models continue to give mixed signals. I still say snow will fall. I am not so sure I am clear on where axis of heavier snows will line up.

Concerns still exist:

1. Phasing could come back into play, which would likely re-appear today, BUT NOW is pretty unlikely. If so, mixing would get involved in more areas and higher amounts where snow was the primary precip type.

2. A coastal system will take over at some point. Though this could increase snow amounts, I have seen these systems become, what I like to call, Piedmont Robbers! The energy during transfer takes the heavy snow band and jumps the piedmont areas.

3. The Coastal system MAY be close enough for a backlash snow which could greatly increase amounts somewhere (Maybe east of I-95!). This will have to be watched

4. There may also be more Arctic air involved which would increase snow ratios. All that means would be more snow would accumulate from small amounts of precip.

All for now!

1/20 DC/VA/MD Weather Outlook and Snow ALERT

I will watch for changes, but it is looking pretty certain that a significant but not historic system will affect the region.

Bottom line, the system that will come through does not appear to phase with other systems which had been important for a serious amount of precipitation. Without this phasing the amounts will be decent, but not historic.

Taking models right now (Obviously forecast will be adjusted if needed)

An area north of and including Roanoke to Richmond to Waldorf will likely see 4-8 inches with some bigger spots approaching 12 inches. Reason for some higher amounts in some areas will be the possibility of convective banding of snow or even thundersnow! There will be mixing concerns along the coast and southern regions after an initial period of snow.

Concerns:

Phasing could come back into play, which would likely re-appear today. If so, mixing would get involved in more areas and higher amounts where snow was the primary precip type.
A coastal system will take over at some point. Though this could increase snow amounts, I have seen these systems become, what I like to call, Piedmont Robbers! The energy during transfer takes the heavy snow band and jumps the piedmont areas.
The Coastal system MAY be close enough for a backlash snow which could greatly increase amounts somewhere (Maybe east of I-95!)

All for now!

Remember, Mid Atlantic Weather Forecasts ae not OFFICIAL forecasts and should never be used to make life saving or property saving decisions. Please cnsult with official government forecast offices or other weather outlets for these decisions!

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Tuesday, January 18, 2005

1/18 DC/MD/VA Weather Updates

Storm Adjustments.

3 Systems will affect us! These are my thoughts

System One:

Size: Small clipper.

When: Tomorrow afternoon:

Where? North of a Charlottesville to Frederickburg to an Atlantic City line.

Amounts: There is possibility for as much as 1-2inches but 1 inch or less more likely. Further north you go, the higher the amounts. Western facing mountains could see 2-4 inches

System Two:

Size: Small clipper.

When: Thursday

Where? North of a Roanoke to Richmond to Salisbury Maryland line.

Amounts: 1 inch MAYBE, but northern areas. Western slopes of mountains 1-3 inches.

System Three: BIG ADJUSTMENTS! VERY PREMIMINARY THOUGHTS> ADJUSTMENTS LIKELY!

Size: Still significant, but likely not Historic

When: Saturday into Sunday

Where: A Shifting north trend through the day.

Southwest: I see a snow sleet mix almost area wide a quick transition to rain. Western Slopes. Piedmont, potential Ice Storm after an initial burst of snow.

Southeast: Some snow/sleet mix, quickly mixing with and changing to freezing rain and sleet and then rain. Some LIGHT snow accumulations, some ice. Western Areas in piedmont have to watch for Ice Storm. A turn over to rain likely..possible ending as a quick shot of snow.

Northeast: Snow.. mixing with sleet and freezing rain. Significant snow accumulations and the significant Ice.

Northwest. Snow.. Heavy at times.. Significant to even possible major accumulations, but a mix likely to cut down on snow amounts.

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1/18 DC/MD/VA Winter Weather Alert!

Possibility of snow the next few days and again this weekend!

2 small system will affect the region the next 48 hours. A big Storm may affect us this weekend.

First System:

Size of system: A clipper, which usually have a hard time putting down accumulating snows east of the mountains, but this one should. These are quick hitters with snow rapidly starting and just as quickly moving on.

When? Tomorrow Afternoon

How Much? The most out of the system would be 1-3, though western Mountains may see 2-4 inches.

Where? Right now I would say anyone north of a Roanoke to Richmond To Salisbury line could see some dusting of snow and north of a Charlottesville to Fredericksburg to Ocean City Maryland could see 1-3 inches of snow.

Second System:

Size of System: Another clipper which looks weaker than the first. Very similar to the light snow this last Sunday night.

When? Thursday Afternoon.

How Much? More flurries to a dusting of snow is also possible

Where? A dusting in the 1-3 inch area outlined above.

Third System:

Size of System: This one could be very significant to Historic depending on which model you believe. I am leaning towards at least a Major Snowstorm for part of the area with the possibility of a Historic event. Keep in mind, we have several days to go!

When? Saturday Night through Early Monday

How Much? Amounts would be futile now, but the distinct possibility of 6 inches or more is there and some models would make this something we measure in feet!

Where? Most of the region should be affected, but coastal areas could easily mix or change over to Freezing rain or even some rain.

All for now!

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Sunday, January 16, 2005

1/16 MD/VA/DC Light Snow Alert

SORRY: Re-sent for correct date!

Light snow possible both in Southeastern VA and Northern Third of Virginia. Nothing looking too heavy. A dusting to an inch possible near the Pennsylvania border. Southeastern
Virginia should monitor the forecast today.

Longer term there appears a much more significant storm could affect us next weekend.

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1/6 MD/VA/DC Snow Alert

Longer term there appears a much more significant storm could affect us next weekend.

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1/16 SNOW Alert!

Light snow possible both in Southeastern VA and Northern Third of Virginia. Nothing looking too heavy. A dusting to an inch possible near the Pennsylvania border. Southeastern Virginia should monitor the forecast today. Longer term there appears a much more significant storm could affect us next weekend.