12/5 - 12/6 Storm Post Mortem

12/5/2005 Storm Post mortem:

 

Yes, I busted: Some totals came closer than it appeared.. My list and actuals:

 

Charlottesville: 5-10" Starting 7-10am

Actual: 2.0” (Big Bust!)

 

Roanoke: 5-10"+ (Some spots 12") Starting 4-9am

Actual: maybe 2-3”

 

Lynchburg 4-8" Starting 4-9am

Actual: maybe 2-3”

 

Richmond: 3-6" (Lots of Mixing with rain)  Starting 9am - noon

Actual: Not bad: 3-6” seems pretty good

 

Fredericksburg: 5-10" Starting 10am to 1pm

Actual: Not bad: Maybe 4-6”

 

DC National: 5-10" Starting 11am - 1pm

Actual: 2-4”

 

Baltimore: 5-10" Startng 11am - 2pm

Actual: 2-4” (bad)

 

IAD: 5-10" Starting 11am-1pm

Actual: 2-4” (Bad)

 

Hagerstown: 4-8" Starting 11am-1pm

Actual: 1-3” (Bad)

 

Purcellville: 4-8" Starting 11-1pm

Actual: 1-3” (Bad)

 

Overall: Bad bust! Would be an F If I were graded!

 

What I learned:

1. Do not go against ALL models unless the reality of radars and the situation is unfolding (Like January 2005)
2. Eastward shift seems to bean issue this year… eastward and shearing
3. Shave some of the snow totals by 1-3” in general when looking at one of the trusted models.

 

I will use this in my next predictions which will start Tomorrow NIGHT

 

 

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