Thursday, December 13, 2007

WINTER STORM WILL BE A MIX AND MESS! SNOW LESS> ICE& RAIN MORE

Based on all data now coming in from models and analysis this  system will have a lot of mixing with sleet and freezing rain as well as rain. Areas at most risk for  significant storm situations would be North and west of a Roanoke to Charlottesville to Dulles to Western Baltimore line. Areas along the immediate piedmont parallel to this line up to I-95 will see some icing and some snow, but there will be a lot of mixing.

The net outcome will be sloppy accumulation that should reach storm warning criteria in the mountains and immediate piedmont with potential warning, but more likely advisory criteria along I95 and to the west.

Changes will likely occur, and they may continue to point to more rain. I will keep you posted.

 
Mid Atlantic Weather: http://www.midatlanticweather.com
Mid Atlantic Weather Forum: http://www.midatlanticweather.com/bb3




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Wednesday, December 12, 2007

MAJOR WINTER STORM STILL LIKELY! DETAILS FUZZY

Latest models do show some warmer scenarios possible, but there are also some interesting features that make me wonder if they are correct. There will be fluctuations on tracks for a while, but we are nearing a new Model Reliability stage around noon so better analysis is possible then. Still see a major snowstorm for areas in the mountains and the immediate piedmont looks to be in on this one. The I-95 debate will go on whether it will be rain or snow and how far to the west it may end up. Sleet also will be a factor. But what is new for the Mid Atlantic area?


All for now!

 
Mid Atlantic Weather: http://www.midatlanticweather.com
Mid Atlantic Weather Forum: http://www.midatlanticweather.com/bb3




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Monday, February 12, 2007

2/13 - 2/14 Final Maps Posted


WINTER STORM APPROACHING

Ice will be a serious issue especially west of the I-95 Corridor. Center line would be just north of Charlottesville to Leesburg to Central Baltimore County Maryland and Northern Hartford. Areas 15 miles either side of this line COULD see a .4 to .8" icing on 2-4" of snow. Further N and W in Maryland and up into Southern PA will see 4-8" with sleet and some Freezing rain. Further north, 12"+

Snow and rain mix is breaking out now in Northern half of Virginia.

Some indications to a wrap around quick snow shot at the end.

See Final maps at Mid Atlantic Weather site or in the Forum which grew by 21 members in the last few days! WOW!

Mid Atlantic Weather: http://www.midatlanticweather.com
Mid Atlantic Weather Forum: http://www.midatlanticweather.com/bb3




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2/12 ICY MESS ON TAP! SNOW AMOUNTS REDUCED


SIGNIFICANT ICE STORM POSSIBLE

Well, with models and an imperfect science it is hard to get forecasting right! Here we go with what appears to be a major Icing Event the majority of which looks like it will be Tuesday Night into Wednesday. For tonight into tomorrow light snow with a general 1-4" accumulation could occur from a Roanoke to Charlttesville to Fredericksburg to Baltimore line and areas 20 miles south and east of that line. Some mixing with rain is likely at onset. Tuesday would be a light snow changing to sleet and even rain for Roanoke to Fredericksburg to south and east of Baltimore. Areas from Charlottesville to Washington DC to Baltimore will see a changeover to sleet and then Freezing rain Tuesday evening as heavier precipitation takes hold. Right now the distinct possibility exists for as much as 3/4" to even 1" of ice! The issue will be.. is it sleet or freezing rain. The further north and west may split totals between sleet and freezing rain, but 20 miles either side of and north of the Charlottesville to Washington DC to Baltimore areas could see a significant Ice Storm!

Please stay tuned to Media and Weather Outlets.

Sorry, no time to draw out thoughts this morning on a map.

BTW.. thing ** COULD ** change as we are still a ways away from the main storm system. I will be watching trends and reporting on them especially in the Forum.

All for now!


 
Mid Atlantic Weather: http://www.midatlanticweather.com
Mid Atlantic Weather Forum: http://www.midatlanticweather.com/bb3




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Sunday, February 11, 2007

2/11 FIRST GUESS POSTED

In general, this looks like a serious storm, but most of Virginia and NC will be spared the winter threat. Snow to start in the DC area and down to Carlottesville, followed by a serious Ice threat. N and W of DC and in Western Maryland and north, a serious snow threat.
 
Map can be found on the website!
 
OF NOTE: Latest model runs seem to imply less snow and more icing or even rain threat! Realize this is a Guess at this point!
 
Will TRY and get a new map out early tomorrow. MAY not be able to provide anything other than analysis beyont that until tomorrow night! By that time, the storm will be on the doorstep!
 
The Forum has been active with 11 new members this weekend. A Pro meteorologist is also posting some thoughts! feel free to join in on the thoughts!
 
All for now!
 
Mid Atlantic Weather: http://www.midatlanticweather.com
Mid Atlantic Weather Forum: http://www.midatlanticweather.com/bb3



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Saturday, February 10, 2007

2/11 HEAVY WINTER STORM TUESDAY


HEAVY SNOW STORM WITH POSSIBLE ICING

Things are lining up for a major Winter Storm. Especially  north of Fredericksburg . Areas could see up to a foot and some places more especially in Maryland. MANY factors could change who get the biggest snows and even ice storm possibilities. Best Chances seem to be Washington, DC to Charlottesville and north as well as up to Baltimore and North. Ice could really become an issue in the transition area.

This one is a serious one. Please stay tuned to radio and news outlets.

More to come!


Mid Atlantic Weather: http://www.midatlanticweather.com
Mid Atlantic Weather Forum: http://www.midatlanticweather.com/bb3




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Friday, February 09, 2007

LARGE WINTER STORM LIKELY!

Areas may see 10 - 20 inches. Please stay tuned!

Saturday, January 20, 2007

Winter Weather Alert

Snow will Visit Region with 1-3" and mixes as well.

1-3" will fall from a n area north Charlottesville to Fredericksburg line and South of a Frederick county to Baltimore county line. Then a mix will occur from Richmond Southwest to the areas just east of the North Carolina Mountains. It would appear that .10 to .25" of ice is possible, the heaviest in Valleys and areas just east of the Mountains (Up to 40 miles east of Mountains in the Piedmont.)

This is not a huge event, but ice would be an issue for travel. Precip will start later in the morning in the SW and late in the day for the northern parts.

Snow will end as freezing drizzle. Of note, when these storms are ideal some places get some heavier precip so isolated 4-5" totals on snow would not surprise me!

Later next week, POTENTIAL, Really is there for a good snow for parts of the region! I will keep you posted. No time to do a map tonight, MAY have one tomorrow Morning!!!!

Thursday, January 18, 2007

Winter Weather Alert


Light accumulations of a Mixture of Precip

Light Snow, Sleet, and Rain and Freezing Rain will all visit the Regions, but mainly the North Carolina and Southern Virginia regions. The mixture could cause some icing troubles, especially this morning in North Carlina and Southern Virginia as only a small coating of ice could cause havoc. Please stay alert and tuned in to Local News and Radio outlets for updates on your regions weather.

There is a possibility of a more significant storm on Sunday Night and again North Carolina and Southern Virginia could be the more problematic spots based on current model read out. This could significantly change between now and Sunday Evening.

Stay Alert!

All for now!

Mid Atlantic Weather: http://www.midatlanticweather.com
Mid Atlantic Weather Forum: http://www.midatlanticweather.com/bb3





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