Winter Weather Alert. Possible storm..
What: Looks more likely that a Small to moderate snow will affect parts of the region.
Where: the Northern areas of Virginia and Maryland especially piedmont areas
How Much: A general 1-4 inch snowfall is possible with some amounts to 6+ inches in the far Northern VA and the immediate piedmont of Maryland. A changeover to light sleet and freezing rain is possible near the end of the storm with plain rain further South and East, and eventually a cold drizzle or light rain most places by Monday Afternoon.
When:
Starting Sunday Afternoon and ending Monday Morning.
Why will this happen, why might it not:
Models are really split on the scenario and this split brings a wide range of solutions. Best bet is a start as a mix of snow and rain to mainly snow northern areas. A quick turnover to rain any outhern areas and a slower turnover north. The idea is that the warm air will not overwhelm the storm before a coastal locks colder air in for northern areas. The coastal is a big factor in this forecast and it may not form. Consistently one model has shown a much warmer pattern and another a colder. Which one is right? If we compromise, I would say not a big storm for many. That is why my range is so large. 1 to 4 inches in the north. I have to say a possible 6 inch plus because if the colder model wins a more significant system could affect the region. One other note, precip amounts on the colder model has been very wrong with storm totals in this region this winter usually favoring more precip than less. I was burned in January and then again the next storm. I have to be more conservative this time. This is my first guess too!
More to come.
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