Winter Weather Possibilities this weekend!

Possibilities of 2 winter systems this Weekend:

There is a lot arguing against a big winter storm this weekend. The North Atlantic Oscillation and a very important 50/50 low pressure system are not in place. Both of these are key factors to a storm off the SE coast that rides up the coast instead of out to sea. That being said, there has been a steady shift in models to a storm system that could do any of the following:
1. Actually pass to the south. There could actually be some snow mixed in the rain for the far southern areas of Virginia.
2. Be a small storm, which should mean some snow involved, but I would be concerned that ambient temperatures would be too warm so more rain than snow, though a changeover would not be out of the question at the end of the event
3. A pretty big storm. One model put out quite a monster for the region, and though I think this type of storm may still be a mix east of I-95, a decent snow could occur just to the west of I-95 say from Fredericksburg northward.
4. Nothing at all!

Right now, I would say I am intrigued but not convinced of any scenario. The situation gives too many reasons for doubting anything will occur until the system is out to sea. There are actually 2 pieces of energy to watch. One Friday night and the other Sunday. If the lead does not develop much, it gives the latter a better chance to be stronger. Again, all said, the systems need to be watched.

Next week may be very favorable for more chances of wintry weather!

50/50 low information: http://www.wxrisk.com/SECS/5050/50-50.htm

NAO: http://www.geocities.com/donsutherland1/NAO.html

More to come!