Mid Atlantic Winter Weather: 2004

Sunday, December 26, 2004

12/26 VA Snow. Far Eastern MD

Right now southeastern VA is the bulls eye for heavier snow. The coast to about 25 miles inland will see a mix and areas east of Raliegh to Richmond to Dover will be in the most precip. Seeing 3-6 inches. CONCERNS of models missing several trends make me leary of writing this off for anyone from I-95 east! If I can I will post again! So stand guard DCA

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Friday, December 17, 2004

12/17 Brief Weather Outlook

No real changes to yesterdayÂ’s posts. Since I am unable to go into long details due to time/work constraints you can go to http://www.midatlanticweather.com and read details from yesterday. Biggest headline is VERY COLD MONDAY with highs in the teens for the mountains, 20-25 degrees north, and 30-35 for the Southwest and Southeast. The Snow Flakes will still fly Sunday night, but not much concern. (Mountains could see 3Â”+ , some more serious totals for Lake Effect Zones) Next big headline is that conditions will become favorable for a possible White Christmas!

That is about all the time I have now! I may post again during the Lunch Hour.

I will try and post a projected impact/accumulations map this weekend. I will alert if I do.

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Thursday, December 16, 2004

12/16- Snow Alert Update for 12/19 - 12/20 Event

12/16/04 8AM.

What?

So far, what I said yesterday still holds weight, but the last 24 hours have given some clues to how minor the event may be for us. For one, the models had missed a strengthening of the Pacific jet in the Pacific NW/ Western Canada. So what? Well, this will weaken the ridging in the western United States and that has a ripple effect. Namely, the strength of the eastern trough, or ability for a storm to really drop far south, correlates with the strength of a western United States ridge. This western US ridge is known as positive Pacific North American (+PNA) weather pattern ItsÂ’ development has been a major culprit in bringing the first cold to the Eastern US.

So yesterdayÂ’s alert:

Â… A low will come out of Canada this weekend and go through reformation off the VA Coastline. It is a little unclear what happens exactly here, but experience says this system will only bring some light snow to the region and minor accumulations (mountains more, and Northern/Northeastern Maryland needs to pay a little more attention), if anything at allÂ…

Comments:

Right now, flurries seem a more likely bet than accumulations. My caution to Northeastern Maryland is that a wrap around on the backside of the low may give a bit more snow, but wrap around bands are really hard to forecast!

When?

This event will commence Sunday evening and overnight.

Impact?

I continue to see a small accumulation possible in some areas. As I noted yesterday, the first flakes will be seen by many in the northern third of the region east of the mountains.

Many things can change between now and the actual event. I will update when possible

Summary:

Pretty much unchanged:

Snow flurries/showers will likely be seen in areas this Sunday that have not yet seen it this year, but, so far, the impact will likely be minor, but the storm has a lot of potential.

FYI.. Next weekÂ’s more favorable weather pattern may not be as strong based on the changes seen in the models the last 24 hours.

BUT.. I am still "Dreamin'"!

More to come!

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Wednesday, December 15, 2004

12/15 - Sunday: First Chance Of Snow DC/MD/VA

Because there is always hype about storms (and I am as guilty as anyone hyping them!) I felt it prudent to send the first Winter Weather Alert for the region.

What?

A low will come out of Canada this weekend and go through reformation off the VA Coastline. It is a little unclear what happens exactly here, but experience says this system will only bring some light snow to the region and minor accumulations (mountains more, and Northern/Northeastern Maryland needs to pay a little more attention), if anything at all. Two models that are being watched closely have 2 different scenarios! One brings as much as a foot of snow to the Northern Virginia area and points north as well as the Mountains. Possible?? Maybe, but I think that it is way overdone and not catching the realistic location of precipitation and low pressure placement off the east coast.

When?

This event will commence Sunday evening and overnight.

Impact?

As I said, right now I would call for a small accumulation, though the first flakes will be seen by many in the northern third of the region east of the mountains. If the storm comes around to look more like the American model (the one with what appears less realistic), a lot of snow could fall for Virginia and Maryland and DC!

If you would like the possible scenarios, DT of wxrisk has some great graphics of possibilities. http://www.wxrisk.com/SECS/summary.htm . If you look Scenario 1 or 2 look more likely. Scenario 3 and 4 are similar to the model that really shows a lot of snow for the region.

Summary:

Snow will likely be seen in areas this Sunday that have not yet seen it this year, but, so far, the impact will likely be minor, but the storm has a lot of potential. If you happen to be going to New England, there could be a much as 1-3 FEET of snow from this storm in places!

FYI.. Next week we are in a more favorable weather scenario to see another storm, so just take this as a heads up! And yes.. "I'm Dreamin'"!

More to come!

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12/15 Winter Weather Threat

Because there is always hype about storms (and I am as guilty as anyone hyping them!) I felt it prudent to send the first Winter Weather Alert for the region.

What?
A low will come out of Canada this weekend and go through reformation off the VA Coastline. It is a little unclear what happens exactly here, but experience says this system will only bring some light snow to the region and minor accumulations (mountains more, and Northern/Northeastern Maryland needs to pay a little more attention), if anything at all. Two models that are being watched closely have 2 different scenarios! One brings as much as a foot of snow to the Northern Virginia area and points north as well as the Mountains. Possible?? Maybe, but I think that it is way overdone and not catching the realistic location of precipitation and low pressure placement off the east coast.

When?
This event will commence Sunday evening and overnight.

Impact?
As I said, right now I would call for a small accumulation, though the first flakes will be seen by many in the northern third of the region east of the mountains. If the storm comes around to look more like the American model (the one with what appears less realistic), a lot of snow could fall for Virginia and Maryland and DC!

If you would like the possible scenarios, DT of wxrisk has some great graphics of possibilities. http://www.wxrisk.com/SECS/summary.htm . If you look Scenario 1 or 2 look more likely. Scenario 3 and 4 are similar to the model that really shows a lot of snow for the region.

Summary:
Snow will likely be seen in areas this Sunday that have not yet seen it this year, but, so far, the impact will likely be minor, but the storm has a lot of potential. If you happen to be going to New England, there could be a much as 1-3 FEET of snow from this storm in places!

FYI.. Next week we are in a more favorable weather scenario to see another storm, so just take this as a heads up! And yes.. "I'm Dreamin'"!

More to come!

Tuesday, December 14, 2004

Winter Weather Possibilities this weekend!

Possibilities of 2 winter systems this Weekend:

There is a lot arguing against a big winter storm this weekend. The North Atlantic Oscillation and a very important 50/50 low pressure system are not in place. Both of these are key factors to a storm off the SE coast that rides up the coast instead of out to sea. That being said, there has been a steady shift in models to a storm system that could do any of the following:
1. Actually pass to the south. There could actually be some snow mixed in the rain for the far southern areas of Virginia.
2. Be a small storm, which should mean some snow involved, but I would be concerned that ambient temperatures would be too warm so more rain than snow, though a changeover would not be out of the question at the end of the event
3. A pretty big storm. One model put out quite a monster for the region, and though I think this type of storm may still be a mix east of I-95, a decent snow could occur just to the west of I-95 say from Fredericksburg northward.
4. Nothing at all!

Right now, I would say I am intrigued but not convinced of any scenario. The situation gives too many reasons for doubting anything will occur until the system is out to sea. There are actually 2 pieces of energy to watch. One Friday night and the other Sunday. If the lead does not develop much, it gives the latter a better chance to be stronger. Again, all said, the systems need to be watched.

Next week may be very favorable for more chances of wintry weather!

50/50 low information: http://www.wxrisk.com/SECS/5050/50-50.htm

NAO: http://www.geocities.com/donsutherland1/NAO.html

More to come!