Mid Atlantic Winter Weather

Potential Winter Storm Mid Week

2011-01-23T13:57:00.001-08:00

Sending a quick outlook on the potential storm this Wednesday. The storm will be very marginal in temperature along I-95 which will make this a somewhat difficult forecast. There are many factors with this storm that make it not an Ideal (for snow lovers) track for a lot of snow.

1. No Real blocking up north to hold cold air.

2. Storm comes in to departing colder air - the Arctic blast is moving away

3. A more wound up storm will flood the area with warm air

4. A weaker storm may end up with a light snow event.

What I do believe:

1. I-81 corridor of VA will see snow.'

2. The immediate Piedmont of the mountains could see the most snow.

3. Areas about 30 miles east of the immediate Piedmont could be the location where snow to a mix and then back to snow will occur.. ironically the higher precip amounts could offset the amounts due to mixing.

4. East of I-95 will see rain with some mixing at the end of the event.

There is a lot of time to monitor. Areas up north of VA and NC will also see a lot of snow and Southern New England may again be in the heavy snow!

A lot to watch so please check back as we get closer. Planning on a map by tomorrow late.

All for now!

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Winter Weather Threat Thursday Night into Friday

2011-01-19T04:00:00.000-08:00

There will be some winter weather in the forecast. Areas of the Northeast are likely to see the most snow, but some will come through Virginia and Maryland. Below are the 2 morning runs of the most popular models. Snow will likely fall North of the red line. (NAM top, GFS Bottom)

Based on the models a general 1 to 3 inches appears possible for the Northern VA and Maryland region with 3 - 5 inches for PA, DE, and NJ.If the NAM (Top Model) verifies, 4 to 8 inches would be possible further Northeast.. I will watch.

Early afternoon quick look at weather may occur if dramatic changes appear.

All for now!

Snow threat still minimal

2010-12-24T11:50:00.001-08:00

There was bad data in the models this morning that tainted the output. I will keep watching. Not expecting much of anything north of Roanoke to Richmond to Wallops Island. Light snow below this. Eastern VA, Eastern NC, Interior SC and even GA could see the dusting to 2 inches in spots.

All for now!

NOON models shifting back to heavy snow Eastern areas!

2010-12-24T08:17:00.001-08:00

Stay tuned! Updates later this afternoon!

OF Course noon models show possible significant snow again for parts of region!

2010-12-24T08:13:00.001-08:00

Stay tuned! Updates later this afternoon!

Snow alert! Southern Half of VA, Most of NC, Interior SC, GA!

2010-12-24T07:40:00.001-08:00

The storm system that was originally looking like a huge hit for the region will still output some snow for parts of the area. The southern 2/3rds of VA will likely see a period of snow with some accumulations possible. As of now I am thinking 1 to 2 inches with areas seeing 3 inches. SW VA in higher elevations may see 2 to 4". The far eastern part of NC and VA may also see some enhanced snow due to some energizing of the system as it hits the ocean.

Light Snow seems possible for SC and GA as well with some 1 to 2" totals!

Still a lot to watch as a lot of energy is trying to get itself together over the region. The outcome could be snow showers for the Northern Third of VA and MD.

NC may really see some 2 to 4" snows based on the energy. This is especially true for eastern NC.

All for now!

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FALSE ALARM - Small snow event at this point!

2010-12-23T14:58:00.001-08:00

I noticed email that was delayed on delivery. The Historic snow is on hold for now! We will see if something materializes.

Sorry!

Again - Snow threat decreases - One more model later today - Update around 3pm

2010-12-23T09:29:00.001-08:00

I should learn in a La Nina weather pattern year to be very cautious with storm phasing. The truth is, the phasing is very hard to accomplish. It also means a high amount of uncertainty up to the event.

Jimmy

MAJOR snow threat reduced!

2010-12-23T06:10:00.001-08:00

Models backed off on Major snow last night. Before changing the areas
for heavier snow I will await noon model updates.

--
Sent from my mobile device

SNOW STORM POTENTIAL IS HIGH

2010-12-22T08:47:00.001-08:00

A continued look at the models shows the potential for a SERIOUS snow storm that would blanket the interior GA, Interior SC, Most of NC, VA, MD, Eastern PA, NJ, and Eastern New England! This is a HUGE system with the possibility of historic output of snow. Exact track is difficult to pin down, but it is time to prepare alternate travel plans and get some extra Turkey and Stuffing ready!

At this point I would bet on a significant snow storm that could turn into a Blizzard for Eastern VA, Eastern MD, and Eastern NC. That is right! A Blizzard for the Mid Atlantic!

The impacts for the southern areas will begin Saturday, and snow will reach the Mid Atlantic Late Saturday or overnight Saturday into Sunday.

Much more will be figured out in the next 24 Hours as the storm system that will cause the snow storm has not even come on shore on the west coast. That will make a huge difference.

What that does mean is - we STILL may see shifts in the forecast track and that could actually mean more snow or less. Also, the intensity of the system could be different than what I am seeing now!

All for now!

Some Wintry Weather for Burbs! #mawinterwx

2010-11-24T15:54:00.001-08:00

Appears that there will be some sleet and pockets of freezing rain in Northwestern VA, Western MD. NWS has a Winter Weather Advisory up!

Snow is on the way!

2010-02-09T03:52:00.000-08:00

Sorry for the lack of an alert! If you have been checking http://www.midatlanticweather.com I did put put a map early this morning! The snow will start today and for areas of Northern Virginia, Central and Eastern Maryland, and Eastern PA it will be heavier overnight. I do anticipate some mixing issues at some point in this storm for areas of DC, Charlottesville, possibly even Baltimore and south and east.The further south and east, the more the mixing. I put the DC region at 4 to 8" because of this. DC could be higher if more snow than I anticipate comes from the coastal.

Quick thoughts on totals (within 2 inches either side of the number):
Dulles - 7
Leesburg - 10
DC - 8
Baltimore - 14
Fredericksburg - 3
Charlottesville - 3 (maybe up to 5)
Towson - 16
York PA - 16
Frederick MD - 11
Front Royal - 11

One other important ingredient of this storm will be the strong winds. Winds will increase towards teh end of teh storm and make for considerable blowing an drifting. Be safe!

All for now!

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MAJOR - HISTORICAL WINTER STORM ON THE WAY

2010-02-04T19:15:00.001-08:00

So many things involved in the placements of the heaviest snow. I am seeing shift to the south this evening and the heaviest snow could be south of what I have set.

This will be interesting with banding snows setting up. Some areas may be far less and some a lot more based on meso scale set ups. In these bands of heavier, high snows, closer to the highest ends of precip amounts will show up. Some thunder and lightning is possible. As the storm strengthens, winds will increase and near blizzard conditions will set up. Along the coast of New Jersey and Delaware, blizzard warnings were posted. More may be posted by tomorrow evening.

The heavy snow area will likely set up between Washington DC and Richmond about mid way and to the coast. This is based on some later model information.

I think Central Virginia is now headed for a 10 to 12 even higher snow storm.

This is a HUGE storm!

Some Point forecasts

Within 4 inches too LOW or to HIGH! for my points -
Points -
Baltimore - 23
Dulles - 25
Washington DC - 25
Manassas - 26
Charlottesville - 27
Dover - 28
Annapolis - 29
Woodbridge - 28
Stafford - 28
Charlottesville - 27
Richmond - 10 - sleet in the middle - Storm Sandwich
Lycnchburg - 15 - some sleet
Roanoke 15 inches - Sleety
Williamsburg - 12 - A lot sleet in the middle
Petersburg - 5 - Dry Slot

HISTORIC WINTER STORM ON THE WAY FOR PARTS OF THE REGION!

2010-02-03T20:56:00.001-08:00

I am trying to get a grip on this, but we are in for a SERIOUS CRIPPLING SNOW for parts of the region. Areas now appear to be headed of 2 feet of snow or more in Northern Virginia, Maryland, and Delaware. This is serious!!!! A State of Emergency has been declared and, just like people get ready for Hurricanes, you need to take this seriously! We will see extremely heavy snow from Friday night through Noon Saturday for the Northern Virginia.

Preliminary map posted at http://www.midatlanticweather.com

First Guess:
DC - 16"
Dulles - 20"
Charlottesville - 20"
Fredericksburg - 15"(Some sleet)
Richmond - 7" with a lot of sleet
Roanoke - 8" - Sleet and freezing rain too
Frederick Maryland -20"
Baltimore - 22"
Bowie - 22"
Annapolis - 22"
Dover 22"
I also have concern that NC will see a serious/severe ice storm in some of the valleys. ALSO, flooding in Southeastern VA and a lot of North Carolina that has snow pack is possible!
Serious situation!

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Major East Coast Snow could be a possible Historical East Coast Snow

2010-02-02T20:55:00.001-08:00

First off, this season has been so surprising. Tonight's storm will drop (in my back yard) nearly 6" or possibly more! This is a 40"+ season already, and we are heading for a lot more. Tonight's snows will have dumped 3 to 5 inches in a lot of Northwest Vorginia and 2 to 4" in the northern half of Virgina and Marland is receiving 2 to 4 inches! Heavy snow fell here for about 3 hours!

Friday into Saturday looks great for a snow lover like me! Snow amounts in the northern part of Virginia, Central and Western Maryland, and on up into New Jersey could see totals approach 20 inches. This is especially true west of I-95. South and east of a Charlottesville, Dulles, Baltimore line will very likely see a mix of sleet and even rain further east. This will then all end as snow for most places.

This will be a very big storm.. heavy precipitation is also likely. People under a lot of snow that end up with rain may see some flooding rains! If you have a lot of snow, please be certain you have cleared drains so that run off does not back up against your house. Coastal flooding also looks likely in this one due to the duration.

When will this thing arrive. It will start Friday - mid to late day and overspread the region. This has shown some speed fluctuation so we will have to see what comes of this!

I am not trying to over worry folks, but another storm looks possible next week, and, this one could affect us mid week. This will be something to watch and could be big. After this I am seeing the possibility of a serious cold set up for a bit!

What a winter! ALL for now!

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Winter Weather Alert - Bit more snow than expected

2010-02-02T03:21:00.001-08:00

Areas along I -95 from Fredericksburg north into southern Maryland could see 1 to 2 inches of snow with a mix of rain at first.
Areas west of I-95 - 15 miles east of a line from Charlottesville to Dulles and westward to the mountains and beyond could see 2 to as much as 4" of snow. The higher amounts likely immediate Piedmont and mountains.

Areas south on I -95 a mix of sleet and rain will occur, but Southwestern VA and western NC will see a mix of sleet, snow, and freezing rain. Please be careful!

The Weekend system is setting up as a northwestern 2/3rds of the state. Due to a bit of warmer conditions I would set this more in line with the totals from the December 19th storm for these areas. Along I - 95 from Fredericksburg and going down to Richmond will see a mixing scenario. It is possible that the mixing will go west of this, but the snow totals will be impressive.

This will again likely be a MAJOR storm and some areas could again approach 20" or more of snow!

Please stay alert today as the snow moves in for the evening rush up north.

All I have for now!

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Winter weather alert for Snow and a mix

2010-02-01T19:58:00.001-08:00

Winter weather alert for Snow and a mix.

There will be a period of wintry weather starting as early as tomorrow morning for areas of Southwestern VA and Western NC. Down there there will mainly be a mix of sleet, freezing rain, and some snow is possible as you head north. As the system moves through snow will also break out through the state. Along I-95 this will be a mix and then end as some snow. The Piedmont from Roanoke to Charlottesville and up to Dulles airport and inch or two of snow may occur!

This weekend's storm looks very impressive. So much so, I am just trying to raise awareness. I am concerned of 2 things!
1. We will see the biggest snows of the season! Areas that saw up to 2 feet on December 19th, may see a storm that is BIGGER than this!
2. A mix along and east of I-95 which will cause a big decrease in snow amounts!

Please be alert of the snow tomorrow and be expecting winter weather this weekend!

All for now!

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Snow expands north!

2010-01-29T20:55:00.001-08:00

It is late in the game and at Night.

I have update http://www.midatlanticweather.com

It is late and I am sorry I do not have time to post all totals!

DC Area - 3 to 6" possible
Roanoke - 8 - 12"
Richmond - 10 - 14+
Norfolk 8 - 12"
Charlottesville - 6 - 10"
Fredericksburg - 4 - 8"
Raleigh - 6 - 8" - Sleet becoming a concern!
Asheville - 12"
Wintergreen - 10 - 14"
Harrisonburg - 8 - 10"

Biggest changes - more mix possible Central NC
Precip has advanced north.

North could see 1 - 3" more than I show if north trends continue.

Map posted at http://www.midatlanticweather.com

Good night!

Storm on track - Hostoric Winter and Snow Storm for Southern Third of VA and a lot of NC!

2010-01-29T04:40:00.001-08:00

I would not stray too far from my map for Virginia that I have up on Mid Atlantic Weather. This looks like a Historic event. Snow will start in the evening in the southwest and overspread the southern third of Virginia and the northern half of North carolina. I may say a 1 to 3 inch increase in higher amount locations could occur as the ratios of snow per liquid equivalent will be high! That is rare for that part of the country. Snow will gradually progress north but it seems unlilkely it will make it past the southern DC metro area. Around that area an inch may fall. A very cold day with temps region wide in the 20s tomorrow. North Carolina, South Carolina and Northeast Georgia could see Ice totals up to or over 1 inch. Snow will be cut down in total amounts for the southern half of the state with sleet and freezing rain a real issue down to the South Carolina border. This will be one for the rcord books. Some adjustments may come as the storm gets closer, but those in the warned areas should prepare!

Major Snow Storm on the way for VA/NC - Serious Ice to the south!

2010-01-28T18:50:00.001-08:00

Select Cities for an idea!

Richmond - 8"
Bristol - 13"
Roanoke - 8"
Raleigh - 8" - With Sleet too
Norfolk - 10 - 12" Sleet at first
Charlottesville - 5"
Frederickburg - 3 - 4"
Dulles - 1"
DC - 2"
Asheville - 7" and sleet
Raleigh - 8"
Danville - 14 - 16"
Martinsville - 14 - 16"
Roanoke Rapids - 12 - 14"
Greensboro - 9"
Greenville SC - 2" and sleet and freezing rain to .5"
Major Ice Storm down in Piedmont of SC/NC/Northeast GA!

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Snow Storm stil on track - who will get the most?

2010-01-26T20:29:00.001-08:00

We saw a lot of fluctuation in the models as the all have shifted heavy precip to the south. They *MAY* have brought that further north.

I will continue to watch the models for more accurate adjustments. Some encouraging signs for snow lovers on the American model this evening. It may still be off and too far north. I am still believing Southern 1/3rd of Virginia and Northern Half of North Carolina (and Mountains) to get the heaviest snows and/or ice. Many will still see a significant snow from this.. Major for the VA/NC border area.

Too late to say much more!

All for now!

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With the latest Model Trends it appears a MAJOR WINTER STORM is becoming Likely!

2010-01-25T16:50:00.001-08:00

First of all, this is STILL model forecasting! Nothing has happened YET, but I am seeing some good trends towards this event!

As of now, most, if not all, the major models have a significant winter storm for the region.
Snow amounts could be in excess of 1 foot in many locations and at least in the 4 to 8 inch range.
Mountains of SW Virginia MAY end up approaching 2 feet!
North Carolina and Southernmost Virginia will likely see a Severe Ice Storm.

As of now, snow timing will be Friday into Saturday. Snow will start in the Southwest and advance Northeast.

There is still a lot of time, but the potential is high based on consensus in models which I have not seen in a long time.

All for now!

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Nuisance Snow event on the way - Decent snow possible - Not Clear Cut!

2010-01-21T05:09:00.001-08:00

This is a tough forecast. I am inclined to be less enthusiastic about snow chances and more sleet and rain. I think along I-95 north of Fredericksburg up to Baltimore and west about 25 miles a general coating, to as much as 2 inches of slop (western border of that area) will occur. The I-15 area north of Charlottesville up in to Maryland could see 2 to 4 inches and areas of higher elevation along I-81 west of Charlottesville up into western Maryland could see totals of 3 to 5 inches. A slight change in storm dynamics and location could up totals by 1 to 3 inches or drop them. This is not clear cut. Based on the time of year a more snowy picture may occur than what I think at this point. If significat changes occur in forecast model analysis I will update later today.

Beyond this event a serious rain threatens the area Sunday into Monday and flooding does seem possible.

All for now!

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UPDATED: Nuisance of Ice/snow/sleet in Northern Virginia and Maryland

2009-12-30T12:50:00.001-08:00

Update. I do not expect the system to turn back to snow. Sorry for the duplicate!

----------------------------------------------

We will see enough of a nuisance of Ice/snow/sleet in Northern Virginia and Maryland for the advisories. I suspect it will not accumulate to 3" in Virginia but some may see that much in Maryland, especially near the MD/PA Border.

A general up to 1" of accumulation seems possible with a bit more to 2" in spots also seems possible.

This will start in the morning and could make the commute terrible.

My thoughts yesterday were not too far off.

So for now, I would say the Northwestern 2/3rds of VA and Maryland will see a wintry mix with snow being more prevalent the further north and west you are. The precip will likely transition to more rain during day hours. This could change, but my best guess is that areas from Warrenton to Dulles Virginia to Towson Maryland could see an inch to as much as 2 inches of snow and slop. Areas North of Towson MD and east of York, PA could see 1 to 4 inches.

For the DC and Baltimore areas I could see up to 1 inch of the stuff. This would be along I -95 down to just north of Fredericksburg and then back to Charlottesville.

Beyond that, a mix coating and then rain eastward and south and east.Mainly rain Southeastern third of VA and All of NC.

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Nuisance of Ice/snow/sleet in Northern Virginia and Maryland

2009-12-30T12:14:00.001-08:00

We will see enough of a nuisance of Ice/snow/sleet in Northern Virginia and Maryland for the advisories. I suspect it will not accumulate to 3" in Virginia but some may see that much in Maryland, especially near the MD/PA Border.

A general up to 1" of accumulation seems possible with a bit more to 2" in spots also seems possible.

This will start in the morning and could make the commute terrible.

My thoughts yesterday were not too far off.

So for now, I would say the Northwestern 2/3rds of VA and Maryland will see a wintry mix with snow being more prevalent the further north and west you are. The precip will likely transition to more rain during day hours and then back to snow towards evening as the storm begins to get its act together. This could change, but my best guess is that areas from Warrenton to Dulles Virginia to Towson Maryland could see an inch to as much as 2 inches of snow and slop. Areas North of Towson MD and east of York, PA could see 1 to 4 inches.

For the DC and Baltimore areas I could see up to 1 inch of the stuff. This would be along I -95 down to just north of Fredericksburg and then back to Charlottesville.

Beyond that, a mix coating and then rain eastward and south and east.Mainly rain Southeastern third of VA and All of NC.

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Winter Weather Alert! Potential for first real snow of 2009!

2009-01-25T07:09:00.001-08:00

Tuesday into Wednesday will likely hold the first big storm of the winter.

Scenario: The arctic front will stay south far enough to allow warm moist air to override the colder air and cause snow to break out Tuesday. The moist air will be pumped north by a system that will be pushing the precipitation into the area. The southerly winds will slowly warm the atmosphere and a gradual changeover to ice and rain in the southern region.

As of now:
Maryland and Northern Virginia (North of Lexington to Charlottesville to Fredericksburg to Dover Deleware could see 4 to 8 inches of snow. Closer to Pennsylvania may see as much as 12 inches. The differences in precipitation will be areas that mix with sleet and freezing rain. The further south you get the more likely a mix even to rain will occur.

Central Virginia will have a good amount of snow (2 to 4 Inches) before mix and changeover to rain.

Southern Virginia - South of a Roanoke to Farmville to Richmond to Chincateugue line, will see 1 to 3 inches possible, but a mixing with rain and ice and then rain will stop the accumulations and quickly be washed away.

This is based on the latest guidance and it will likely adjust over time as we get closer to the event.

More to come!

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WINTER STORM WILL BE A MIX AND MESS! SNOW LESS> ICE& RAIN MORE

2007-12-13T03:32:00.001-08:00

Based on all data now coming in from models and analysis this system will have a lot of mixing with sleet and freezing rain as well as rain. Areas at most risk for significant storm situations would be North and west of a Roanoke to Charlottesville to Dulles to Western Baltimore line. Areas along the immediate piedmont parallel to this line up to I-95 will see some icing and some snow, but there will be a lot of mixing.

The net outcome will be sloppy accumulation that should reach storm warning criteria in the mountains and immediate piedmont with potential warning, but more likely advisory criteria along I95 and to the west.

Changes will likely occur, and they may continue to point to more rain. I will keep you posted.

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MAJOR WINTER STORM STILL LIKELY! DETAILS FUZZY

2007-12-12T03:34:00.001-08:00

Latest models do show some warmer scenarios possible, but there are also some interesting features that make me wonder if they are correct. There will be fluctuations on tracks for a while, but we are nearing a new Model Reliability stage around noon so better analysis is possible then. Still see a major snowstorm for areas in the mountains and the immediate piedmont looks to be in on this one. The I-95 debate will go on whether it will be rain or snow and how far to the west it may end up. Sleet also will be a factor. But what is new for the Mid Atlantic area?

All for now!

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2/13 - 2/14 Final Maps Posted

2007-02-12T20:37:00.001-08:00

WINTER STORM APPROACHING

Ice will be a serious issue especially west of the I-95 Corridor. Center line would be just north of Charlottesville to Leesburg to Central Baltimore County Maryland and Northern Hartford. Areas 15 miles either side of this line COULD see a .4 to .8" icing on 2-4" of snow. Further N and W in Maryland and up into Southern PA will see 4-8" with sleet and some Freezing rain. Further north, 12"+

Snow and rain mix is breaking out now in Northern half of Virginia.

Some indications to a wrap around quick snow shot at the end.

See Final maps at Mid Atlantic Weather site or in the Forum which grew by 21 members in the last few days! WOW!

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2/12 ICY MESS ON TAP! SNOW AMOUNTS REDUCED

2007-02-12T03:46:00.001-08:00

SIGNIFICANT ICE STORM POSSIBLE

Well, with models and an imperfect science it is hard to get forecasting right! Here we go with what appears to be a major Icing Event the majority of which looks like it will be Tuesday Night into Wednesday. For tonight into tomorrow light snow with a general 1-4" accumulation could occur from a Roanoke to Charlttesville to Fredericksburg to Baltimore line and areas 20 miles south and east of that line. Some mixing with rain is likely at onset. Tuesday would be a light snow changing to sleet and even rain for Roanoke to Fredericksburg to south and east of Baltimore. Areas from Charlottesville to Washington DC to Baltimore will see a changeover to sleet and then Freezing rain Tuesday evening as heavier precipitation takes hold. Right now the distinct possibility exists for as much as 3/4" to even 1" of ice! The issue will be.. is it sleet or freezing rain. The further north and west may split totals between sleet and freezing rain, but 20 miles either side of and north of the Charlottesville to Washington DC to Baltimore areas could see a significant Ice Storm!

Please stay tuned to Media and Weather Outlets.

Sorry, no time to draw out thoughts this morning on a map.

BTW.. thing ** COULD ** change as we are still a ways away from the main storm system. I will be watching trends and reporting on them especially in the Forum.

All for now!

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2/11 FIRST GUESS POSTED

2007-02-11T19:06:00.000-08:00

In general, this looks like a serious storm, but most of Virginia and NC will be spared the winter threat. Snow to start in the DC area and down to Carlottesville, followed by a serious Ice threat. N and W of DC and in Western Maryland and north, a serious snow threat.

Map can be found on the website!

OF NOTE: Latest model runs seem to imply less snow and more icing or even rain threat! Realize this is a Guess at this point!

Will TRY and get a new map out early tomorrow. MAY not be able to provide anything other than analysis beyont that until tomorrow night! By that time, the storm will be on the doorstep!

The Forum has been active with 11 new members this weekend. A Pro meteorologist is also posting some thoughts! feel free to join in on the thoughts!

All for now!

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Mid Atlantic Weather Forum: http://www.midatlanticweather.com/bb3

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2/11 HEAVY WINTER STORM TUESDAY

2007-02-10T21:57:00.001-08:00

HEAVY SNOW STORM WITH POSSIBLE ICING

Things are lining up for a major Winter Storm. Especially north of Fredericksburg . Areas could see up to a foot and some places more especially in Maryland. MANY factors could change who get the biggest snows and even ice storm possibilities. Best Chances seem to be Washington, DC to Charlottesville and north as well as up to Baltimore and North. Ice could really become an issue in the transition area.

This one is a serious one. Please stay tuned to radio and news outlets.

More to come!

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LARGE WINTER STORM LIKELY!

2007-02-09T21:43:00.000-08:00

Areas may see 10 - 20 inches. Please stay tuned!

Winter Weather Alert

2007-01-20T20:38:00.000-08:00

Snow will Visit Region with 1-3" and mixes as well.

1-3" will fall from a n area north Charlottesville to Fredericksburg line and South of a Frederick county to Baltimore county line. Then a mix will occur from Richmond Southwest to the areas just east of the North Carolina Mountains. It would appear that .10 to .25" of ice is possible, the heaviest in Valleys and areas just east of the Mountains (Up to 40 miles east of Mountains in the Piedmont.)

This is not a huge event, but ice would be an issue for travel. Precip will start later in the morning in the SW and late in the day for the northern parts.

Snow will end as freezing drizzle. Of note, when these storms are ideal some places get some heavier precip so isolated 4-5" totals on snow would not surprise me!

Later next week, POTENTIAL, Really is there for a good snow for parts of the region! I will keep you posted. No time to do a map tonight, MAY have one tomorrow Morning!!!!

Winter Weather Alert

2007-01-18T03:32:00.000-08:00

Light accumulations of a Mixture of Precip

Light Snow, Sleet, and Rain and Freezing Rain will all visit the Regions, but mainly the North Carolina and Southern Virginia regions. The mixture could cause some icing troubles, especially this morning in North Carlina and Southern Virginia as only a small coating of ice could cause havoc. Please stay alert and tuned in to Local News and Radio outlets for updates on your regions weather.

There is a possibility of a more significant storm on Sunday Night and again North Carolina and Southern Virginia could be the more problematic spots based on current model read out. This could significantly change between now and Sunday Evening.

Stay Alert!

All for now!

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Mid Atlantic Weather Forum: http://www.midatlanticweather.com/bb3

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2/11 - 2/12 final call

2006-02-10T20:46:00.000-08:00

My Thoughts:
Hagerstown: 4-8”
Frederick, MD: 4-8”
Montgomery, MD: 5-9”
Baltimore: 6-10” D.C: 6-10” (Maybe some sleet/rain at start)
Dulles: 4-8” (Maybe some sleet)
Fredericksburg: 6-10” (Maybe some sleet)
Salisbury: 1-3” then Rain
Richmond: 3-6” (Mixing with rain and sleet)
Williamsburg 1-3” (Mixing with sleet and rain)
Emporia: Mix then rainVA Beach: Rain (Sorry stormy! )
Martinsburg: 3-6” (Some Sleet)
Roanoke: 3-6”
Charlottesville: 4-8”
Leesburg: 4-8”

12/15 First Call

2005-12-13T19:10:00.000-08:00

What?
Significant Icing event. Moderate Icing event and Light Icing event
Some Accumulating Snows

Where?
Significant Icing: Immediate Piedmont: Maryland, Virginia, North Carolina
Major Icing: Immediate Piedmont to 35 miles west of I-95; Maryland, Virginia
North Carolina : West Central NC
Light Icing: I-95 to about 35 miles west of I-95: West Central NC
Snows: Higher elevations of Northern Virginia and Western Maryland. A large Part of Pennsylvania, West 40 miles west of I-95

When? Starting Thursday Early Morning South overspreading northern areas by Late Morning

Comments: Tough call in many ways. A lot of precip will fall over very shallow cold air. The Warm air appears to truly Surge over the area and warm areas close to or above freezing. There is a chance for significant rains as well. If things stay frozen, ice storm conditions could be reached by a lot more areas than what I am indicating on my first guess map. May issue a follow up call tomorrow night.. but my guess may be all the time I have to do.

http://mawinterweather.blogspot.com

Of Note: Large potential Snow Storm early next week!

12/8 - 12/9 Post Mortem

2005-12-09T10:03:00.000-08:00

Not as bad off as last storm locally... expanded areas i definitely got wrong..

Predicted: Charlottesville: 3-5" - Sleet
Actual: 1-2" Big bust!
Predicted: Roanoke: 1-3" Icing concerns. May reach Ice Storm criteria
Actual: See a report of .25" of ice and .75 inches of sleet. no snow.. Ice correct
Predicted: Lynchburg 1" Icing concerns. May reach Ice Storm criteria
Actuals: No snow. .20 of ice mainly trees
Predicted: Richmond: Rain
Actual: Rain
Predicted: Fredericksburg: 2-4" Snow.. then Sleet and Freezing Rain
Actual: .8" Way off!
DC National: 2-4" Snow.. then Sleet and Freezing Rain
Actual: 1.6" .. busted.. but could have been worse!
Predicted: Baltimore: 3-5" Snow.. then Sleet and Freezing Rain
Actual: 3-4" range.. not too bad
Predicted: Dulles: 3-5" - Sleet a real possibility.
Actual: 2.0" Bad.. but not horrible
Predicted: Hagerstown: 4-8" (maybe 10")

Actual: 4-6" No 10" though. Not too bad
Predicted: Purcellville: 4-8"
Actual: 3-4" A miss

So in general.. over predicted.. Odd scenarios last night as the models came in colder, but ice still occurred and in more regions and sooner than thought.

Good analyses of the storm last evening provided by the first Met on the board! A friend and old coworker!

12/8 - 12/9 Final Call

2005-12-08T12:31:00.000-08:00

Charlottesville: 3-5" - Sleet a real possibility. Starting 8-10pm Roanoke: 1-3" Icing concerns. May reach Ice Storm criteria Lynchburg 1" Icing concerns. May reach Ice Storm criteria Richmond: Rain
Fredericksburg: 2-4" Snow.. then Sleet and Freezing Rain Starting 8-11pmDC National: 2-4" Snow.. then Sleet and Freezing Rain Starting 8-11pmBaltimore: 3-5" Snow.. then Sleet and Freezing Rain Starting 9-Midnight
Dulles: 3-5" - Sleet a real possibility. 8-11pm
Hagerstown: 4-8" (maybe 10") Starting 8-11pm Purcellville: 4-8" Starting 8-11pm

Please note.. this is a dynamic system.. it could compensate for some warmth that it is en-training off the ocean and cause places to shift between snow and sleet and freezing rain. If we get Thunderstorms( a possibility) we will see higher totals of precip in whatever type is falling on you! That could be interesting!

12/8 - 12/9 First GUESS!

2005-12-07T12:37:00.000-08:00

Quick hitting snowstorm will commence in the region later tomorrow through noon Friday. Southern 1/3rd of the region should see a mix to sleet and freezing rain and then rain. Norther 2/3rds a General 3-6" but chances for 2 things.. A dry slotting during energy transfers and a chance for thundersnow or convective banding which could either lessen ior intensify snow amounts..

Much to watch.. Take this as aGuess! That is all it is!

12/5 - 12/6 Storm Post Mortem

2005-12-06T06:33:00.000-08:00

12/5/2005 Storm Post mortem:

Yes, I busted: Some totals came closer than it appeared.. My list and actuals:

Charlottesville: 5-10" Starting 7-10am

Actual: 2.0 (Big Bust!)

Roanoke: 5-10"+ (Some spots 12") Starting 4-9am

Actual: maybe 2-3

Lynchburg 4-8" Starting 4-9am

Actual: maybe 2-3

Richmond: 3-6" (Lots of Mixing with rain) Starting 9am - noon

Actual: Not bad: 3-6 seems pretty good

Fredericksburg: 5-10" Starting 10am to 1pm

Actual: Not bad: Maybe 4-6

DC National: 5-10" Starting 11am - 1pm

Actual: 2-4

Baltimore: 5-10" Startng 11am - 2pm

Actual: 2-4 (bad)

IAD: 5-10" Starting 11am-1pm

Actual: 2-4 (Bad)

Hagerstown: 4-8" Starting 11am-1pm

Actual: 1-3 (Bad)

Purcellville: 4-8" Starting 11-1pm

Actual: 1-3 (Bad)

Overall: Bad bust! Would be an F If I were graded!

What I learned:

Do not go against ALL models unless the reality of radars and the situation is unfolding (Like January 2005)
Eastward shift seems to bean issue this year eastward and shearing
Shave some of the snow totals by 1-3 in general when looking at one of the trusted models.

I will use this in my next predictions which will start Tomorrow NIGHT

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12/5 - 12/6 Final Call

2005-12-04T20:57:00.000-08:00

This really Bucks the Models! Serious bust potential here!

This still looks pretty good, but start times!

Charlottesville: 5-10" Starting 7-10am

Roanoke: 5-10"+ (Some spots 12") Starting 4-9am

Lynchburg 4-8" Starting 4-9am

Richmond: 3-6" (Lots of Mixing with rain) Starting 9am - noon

Fredericksburg: 5-10" Starting 10am to 1pm

DC National: 5-10" Starting 11am - 1pm

Baltimore: 5-10" Startng 11am - 2pm

IAD: 5-10" Starting 11am-1pm

Hagerstown: 4-8" Starting 11am-1pm

Purcellville: 4-8" Starting 11-1pm

Few things on this:

1. Think Storm will be further west than models

2. See good Wrap around/deformation zone possible

3. Expecting a closer to the coast pull ultimately

12/5 - 12/6 First CALL

2005-12-04T14:29:00.000-08:00

Ok. This is my first call, likely final call after next Model runs.Giving some Locations and amounts!
Charlottesville: 5-10" Starting Early Afternoon
Roanoke: 5-10"+ (Some spots 12") Starting 7-9am
Lynchburg 4-8" Starting 7-9am
Richmond: 3-6" Starting 9am - noon
Fredericksburg: 5-10" Starting noon to 3pm
DC National: 5-10" Starting 3-6pm
Baltimore: 5-10" Startng 5-8pm
IAD: 5-10" Starting 3-6pm
Hagerstown: 4-8" Starting 3-6pm
Purcellville: 4-8" Starting 3-6pm

Few things on this:
1. Think Storm will be further west
2. See good Wrap around/deformation zone possible
3. Expecting a closer to the coast pull ultimately

Second Guess Dec 5th/6th event!

2005-12-03T18:19:00.000-08:00

I am betting on a pretty big blockbuster here! Only concern would be track.. but I think plenty of dynamics get involved and push it high and precip far west!

Final call will be issued Tomorrow later afternoon or evening. Sorry, busy day will preclude sooner. May send updates if things change dramatically!

12/3 Winter Weather Alert! For TONIGHT's storm

2005-12-03T08:17:00.000-08:00

Final Call map out at http://mawinterweather.blogspot.com

Second storm looking like a classic I-95 Storm now!

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Final Call 12/3 Event

2005-12-03T07:55:00.000-08:00

I am concerned about the Valleys seeing an Ice Storm. Expect Winter Storm Warnings for some Far western Counties.

Storm for Monday is becoming a CLASSIC winter Storm.. I-95 cities could be very white. Will post updates on this later this evening!

First Guess! 12/5 Event

2005-12-02T21:54:00.000-08:00

MAY REALLY SHIFT! Stand By!

First Real Snow Chances for the Region Monday. Appetizer tomorrow Night.

2005-12-02T05:33:00.000-08:00

First Real Snow Chances for the Region Monday. Appetizer tomorrow Night.

What? 2 Systems will affect the region between Today and Tuesday with Winter weather

System 1: No big deal, but a burst of snow and sleet should occur tomorrow evening that should last until Midnight.

System 2: Significant chance of a real snowstorm.

Where?

System 1: Northern 2/3rds of Virginia and Western Maryland. The Snow should change to rain for most regions, but North Central Maryland and the Northwestern part of Virginia.

System 2: All regions could see some snow, but again, best chances appear to be northern 2/3rds of Virginia, and western 2/3rds of Maryland. Snow should overtake the region and then a mix to rain, very quickly southern regions, and slowly a creep northward and westward. Right now would call for I-95 areas north of Frederickburg to see a moderate event, while areas west of this by 15 to 20 miles will see a potentially major storm.

How Much?

System 1: Dusting most areas at best, but 1 to as much as 3 inches in the areas staying snow or a mix. Grassy and elevated surfaces only.

System 2: (First Guess here) Potential exists for the Moderate areas to see 3 to 5 inches and the Major areas (mainly snow) to see 5 to 10 inches with some 12 inch readings in the higher elevations and immediate piedmont areas of Northern Virginia (North of Charlottesville and western Maryland).

When?

System 1: Saturday late day through Midnight for most regions, but the areas mentioned where accumulations could occur will be through Sunday Morning.

System 2: Sunday Night through Monday.. possibly stretching to early Tuesday morning.

Comments: System 1 will not be a big deal. System 2 seriously could be, but we are early in the game on this! Shifts in the track obviously mean chances for more or less snow. As models converge on the system, updates will come. Also of note, roads are warm so salt will do a good job on helping melt the snow.

Expect snow impact Maps possibly tonight or tomorrow morning.. First Guess on Accumulations afternoon or evening tomorrow.

All for Now!

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11/12 2005-2006 Winter Outlook

2005-11-12T06:43:00.000-08:00

2005-2006 Winter Outlook

I will make this more formal soon!

I am on board with a normal to slightly above normal winter. However, the SST's off the east coast and in the Gulf I think will (and have already proven to do so) aid to very moist storms up the East Coast. With that in mind, in the brief colder snaps (I think most will last for about a week.if not briefer. like we have seen) I see very energetic storms forming with abilities for Severe weather in the Southeast and also strong Nor'easters. So, if cold enough, the storms that do occur should have great potential for large amounts of precip and of course Snow! So, snow should be above normal in the Piedmont and interior Upper Mid Atlantic (VA, MD, PA, NJ) and New england, with coastal plains dealing with a lot of turnover or mix scenarios.. not surprising, as strong storms should throw warm air off the oceans inland.. and with warmer sea temps, this does not look good for areas east of I-95 in the Mid Atlantic in general.

Restating: Brief cold snaps and large storms.. a few storms should make above normal snow piedmont and higher elevations of the Mid Atlantic, and also in interior New England. Normal to slightly above normal temperatures overall.

Factors considered:
Slow Snow cover expansion in Canada (Just a trend I am watching)
Cold pool off Pacific NW Coast (Not good)
Warmer waters (at least for now) off East (Strengthens East Coast Storms)
Weather trends seen this fall. (Drought buster and Tropical systems)
ENSO.. Not a factor this year
Not a big analog person as I have seen this hurt some forecasts dramatically! (Last year comes to mind)
And yes.. the watch of other meteorologist's predictions. (Helps confirm or challenge my thinking)

That is it. I will make it more fromal soon!

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untitled

2005-03-09T22:11:00.000-08:00

It is becoming increasingly possible that a period of wet snow will end the rain that occurs overnight. Amounts, and whether or not anything will accumulate are not clear at this time. This may just be a period of snow with little or no accumulations, but I felt it would be prudent to alert people to the possibilities since there is a chance some accumulations could occur from this event.

Areas most at risk for accumulations are the I-95 corridor and east up to just inland from the coast.

If accumulations appear likely a more important alert will be issued!

Enjoy the warmth today!

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3/7 Some Snow Alert

2005-03-07T12:57:00.000-08:00

Areas most at risk for accumulations are the I-95 corridor and east up to just inland from the coast.

If accumulations appear likely a more important alert will be issued!

Enjoy the warmth today!

12/28 Final Call

2005-02-27T20:52:00.000-08:00

Big Winter Storm Commencing!

What?

Major Winter Storm

When?

From Tonight Through Late Tuesday Night, though bulk will fall next 24 hours

How Much?

I have my final call map here: http://www.midatlanticweather.com/images/2_28_2005_F.gif

Some Locations:

Hagerstown: 8-10

Dulles: 8-10

Washington DC: 6-8

Fairfax: 8-10

Charlottesville: 8-10

Lynchburg: 4-6 some Freezing Rain

Roanoke: 8-10

Wytheville: 8-10

Danville: 1-3 Freezing Rain Threat

Richmond: 1-3 To Rain

Fredericksburg: 4-6

NOTE: These could be underdone! There will be Thundersnows tomorrow and I could really be
under doing the amounts! I am playing it safe with eth QPF from models Also, the area expecting a large mix.. if it is snow.. that will be much higher!

Concerns:

1.
Models suddenly warmer and less precip. Is this true? Doubt it looking at Radar.

2.
Really, my concern is that the precip totals could be too low!

3.
May see a regeneration of snow again tomorrow night as the Upper level system comes through

4.
Winds will start to be an issue tomorrow night… This could mean we get to Blizzard Conditions? That will need toe be assessed tomorrow and more likely north of our region of the country

5.
Far western VA and Maryland (western facing slopes)could see a serious amount of snow tomorrow night into Tuesday from wrap around and that upper level disturbance.

All for now.

Please join the forum and give your updates on the storm!http://www.midatlanticweather.com/bb/

2/25 BIG Storm Monday Could Bring BIG SNOW!

2005-02-25T12:08:00.000-08:00

Big Storm Monday likely to start as Snow for areas central and west and may stay that way west of I-95, especially higher elevations!

I will do a full update later tonight or early tomorrow morning! Mountains, get ready! West of I-95 for the Northern half of the area! Stay alert!

If, by chance, things line up, there could be locally 1 to 2 feet of snow in areas! The higher your elevation, the more concerned you need to be!

More to come!

All for Now!

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2/24 DC/MD/VA SNow Final Call

2005-02-23T20:39:00.000-08:00

Snow Alert Final Call

What: moderate to potentially heavy Snow event.

Where: Today we had a major Shift North. Southern VA likely to see rain. Northern Virginia and Maryland will see Moderate to heavy accumulations

Final Calls for some select locations.

Dulles – 4-8

DC – 3-6

Baltimore - 4-8

Hagerstown - 6-10

Charlottesville – 3-6

Orange – 3-6

Fredericksburg – 3-6

Spotsylvania – 3-6

Ashland – 1-3

Richmond – 1-3

Roanoke – 1-3

Lynchburg - 2-4

See Map: http://www.midatlanticweather.com/Images/2_24_2005_f.gif

When: Starting: 2 am Southwest. Overspreading the north by 9 am. Expecting heavier snow between 10 am and 3 pm .. may see a lull and then a regeneration of light snow tomorrow evening and night in the North.

Concerns:

1.
Limiting factor may be the convection to our south

2.
Mix may make it to DC suburbs south of town

3.
Could see cold air wrap into system and give some snow back to south central regions

4. Snow deformation line/wrap around possible Central Maryland into Northern Virginia

2/24 Second Guess:Note Shift North

2005-02-23T11:09:00.000-08:00

Note the shift to the North. This may not be done.

First Guess

2005-02-22T22:04:00.000-08:00

2/22 DC/MD/VA Snow Alert for Thursday

2005-02-22T13:55:00.000-08:00

Snow Alert

What?: Moderate Snow Event

Where? Most of Virginia and Maryland

When? Thursday

How Much?

2-4 Northern Virginia and Maryland areas

4-8 Central Virginia

2-4 NC/VA Border with Sleet and Freezing rain involved especially coast!

Could see heavier amounts of 10 inches in parts of the region!

Accumulations vary North to south and not east to west in this event. (Further north the less the amounts)

Concerns:

Northern cut off of precip could be sharp so Northern Maryland could see far less
Higher Ratios could up the Northern Virginia and Maryland amounts.
Precip could come further north than what models show.. but not by much!
Low may not come far enough north (low risk, but there)

OF NOTE: Cold air is not a big issue with this event as the last 2 events, thus snowfall much more likely in this event

Hope for Snowfall maps later tonight!

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2/22 DC/MD/VA Snow Alert

2005-02-22T10:27:00.000-08:00

Snow Alert

What?: Moderate Snow Event

Where? Most of Virginia and Maryland

When? Thursday

How Much?

2-4 Northern Virginia and Maryland areas

4-8 Central Virginia

2-4 NC/VA Border with Sleet and Freezing rain involved especially coast!

Could see heavier amounts of 10 inches in parts of the region!

Accumulations vary North to south and not east to west in this event. (Further north the less the amounts)

Concerns:

Northern cut off of precip could be sharp so Northern Maryland could see far less

Higher Ratios could up the Northern Virginia and Maryland amounts.

Precip could come further north than what models show.. but not by much!

Low may not come far enough north (low risk, but there)

OF NOTE: Cold air is not a big issue with this event as the last 2 events, thus snowfall much more likely in this event

Hope for Snowfall maps later tonight!

2/20 Snow Alert

2005-02-19T19:00:00.000-08:00

Snow Event Diminished

What: Light Snow Possible
Where: Northern VA and Central MD Immediate Piedmont to areas just east of I-95
When: Sunday afternoon through Monday Morning
How Much: At most, I could sonly see a 1-3” snow based on models. Areas really DC to Dulles To Baltimore and north have the greatest threat of accumulations with higher amounts north. Isolated 4” near the PA/MD border would not surprise me. See http://www.midatlanticweather.com/2_22_2005_f.gif
Concerns: It appears warmth will really work fast to erode cold air. I will continue to monitor. Seems really cold, but strong southerly winds are at play here so a quick turnover would not surprise me!

2005-02-19T05:05:00.000-08:00

Snow/Wintry Event More Likely

What: Light to Moderate Snow
Where: Northern VA and Central MD Immediate Piedmont to areas just east of I-95
When: Sunday afternoon through Monday Morning
How Much: Refer to http://www.midatlanticweather.com/2_20_2005_.gif looks like 2-4” immediate Piedmont North of Charlottesville up through Maryland. 1-3” I-95 areas Fredericksburg and north.
Concerns: I hope I am not overdoing precip. Still could have to shift this north if warmer air is more powerful.

2/18 DC/MD/VA WInter Weather Alert

2005-02-18T15:10:00.000-08:00

Winter Weather Alert. Possible storm..

What: Looks more likely that a Small to moderate snow will affect parts of the region.

Where: the Northern areas of Virginia and Maryland especially piedmont areas

How Much: A general 1-4 inch snowfall is possible with some amounts to 6+ inches in the far Northern VA and the immediate piedmont of Maryland. A changeover to light sleet and freezing rain is possible near the end of the storm with plain rain further South and East, and eventually a cold drizzle or light rain most places by Monday Afternoon.

When:
Starting Sunday Afternoon and ending Monday Morning.

Why will this happen, why might it not:

Models are really split on the scenario and this split brings a wide range of solutions. Best bet is a start as a mix of snow and rain to mainly snow northern areas. A quick turnover to rain any outhern areas and a slower turnover north. The idea is that the warm air will not overwhelm the storm before a coastal locks colder air in for northern areas. The coastal is a big factor in this forecast and it may not form. Consistently one model has shown a much warmer pattern and another a colder. Which one is right? If we compromise, I would say not a big storm for many. That is why my range is so large. 1 to 4 inches in the north. I have to say a possible 6 inch plus because if the colder model wins a more significant system could affect the region. One other note, precip amounts on the colder model has been very wrong with storm totals in this region this winter usually favoring more precip than less. I was burned in January and then again the next storm. I have to be more conservative this time. This is my first guess too!

More to come.

02/02 Southwestern Virginia Snow Alert!

2005-02-02T05:50:00.000-08:00

Southwestern Virginia Snow Alert!

Between Tonight and Friday Morning, as Much as 8” of snow could fall in the Higher elevations of Southwestern Virginia. Areas specifically west of Lynchburg to Martinsville and east of Bristol and Bluefield. Even at lower elevations as much as 3-6” of snow is possible.

There is also the possibility of mixed rain and snow and some sleet as far north as a Harrisonburg to Frederickburg to Salisbury. Areas south of this line will have periods of Rain and snow mixed (especially at night). Southern Virginia, especially areas close to the above mentioned area of Southwestern Virginia, could see some light accumulations of 1 to 3 inches.

This situation could change and move precipitation more northward or even southward. Models continue to track the systems poorly. Also, cold air is not in great abundance, so whereas the higher elevations of Southwestern Virginia seem Likely to get good snows, lower elevations could mix and be primarily rain at times. This scenario is not easy to predict.
All for now!

2005-01-28T20:04:00.000-08:00

A lot of potential may result in serious forecast busts! This is my best call for now!

Please see the last call that I am making unless I see significant shift to the north on precipitation and the coastal low. Totals in the South Central could be overdone if sleet and freezing rain become the dominant type. This is obvious, but a real quandary. Also, as much as the models are locked on what the northward movement of totals will be, I keep having a nagging feeling a lot more precip will make it north. That may be all it is.. a feeling.. or my dinner! HA! Anyways, this represents the last snow threat I see for about a week to 10 days! But, as I said before, I think this is usually peak time for snow storms, so things may really change.

Again, Snow will start later tomorrow afternoon and then tomorrow night.
Things should be done late Sunday UNLESS the coastal storm does something more than what is shown now!

http://www.midatlanticweather.com/01_29_2005_f.gif

Please sign up, give thoughts about, and post observations at http://www.midatlanticweather.com/bb/

Weekend Winter Storm Update

2005-01-28T09:47:00.000-08:00

I think someone in Virginia is going to see a good snow from this, but the snow will have a very hard time overcoming a powerful High that is to our north.

This blocking High does 2 things:
1. Keeps marginally cold air in place
2. Acts as a road block to northward movement of a precipitation.

That being said, there is always a LOT of moisture from a southern storm and that will need to be watched!

Current thoughts keep accumulating snow just to the south of the Maryland line (except lower southern Maryland) and south of the DC metro areas. There easily could be a more northward trend, but this will need to be monitored and models will likely not be that great. If I were to bet largest amounts I would say North of the VA/NC border up to just North of Richmond and west of areas just to the east of I-95 will see the most significant precip. Gut says 3-6" with isolated 6"+ amounts especially towards the Southwestern part of the state. Ice and sleet will fall on and off throughout the event when precipitation is lighter.

A map really should be drawn and I hope to get one out later tonight.

01/27 DC/MD/VA Winter Weather Alert

2005-01-27T06:14:00.000-08:00

Ice storm threat for Southwest and South Central Virginia. All types of precip likely this weekend for the rest of the area!

Due to family commitments this will be very quick.

A southern system will override cold air that is in place this weekend. This will set up a mix of snow, and then mainly sleet and freeing rain especially in Southwestern and south central Virginia. The rest of the area will see light precipitation. This situation will be monitored as details become a it clearer. The precipitation threat is mainly Saturday Night through Sunday.

More to come tonight on this threat!

All for now!

1/22 Snow Alert Update

2005-01-22T05:17:00.000-08:00

Concerns about track of low and possible sleet and Freezing rain Central regions on my forecast map.. For latest thoughts and discussion today you can visit http://www.midatlanticweather.com/bb/ . PLEASE add you observations and thoughts.

FYI.. 8:15 am and light flurries in Sterling VA

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untitled

2005-01-21T21:45:00.000-08:00

Last Call

Highlighting major areas: (Think of regions around these points, not the location itself)

Hagerstown: 4-8 some 10+

Baltimore: 6-12 some 14+

Washington DC National: 5-10 some 10+

Washington DC Dulles: 4-8 some 10+

Stafford: 3-6 with icing issues

Fredericksburg: : 3-6 with icing issues

Charlottesville: 3-6 with icing issues

Richmond: 2-4 with icing concerns.

Wakefield: 1-2

Norfolk: 1-2. Risk of some backlash

Roanoke: 2-4 with icing concerns

Lynchburg: 3-6 with icing issues

SEE MAP: http://www.midatlanticweather.com/Images/01_22_2005_final.gif for my First Guess!

Quick updates:

Size of Storm: Areas in northeast could easily see a lot more if back lash from coastal gets involved. Also, adjustments could occur if system happens to dig more.

When: Saturday morning and overnight, though mostly over by midnight, except Northeast. Will be very cold and windy.

How Much: My last thoughts http://www.midatlanticweather.com/Images/01_22_2005_final.gif

Concerns:

There are models showing a very substantial event in areas I am being somewhat conservative on.
Location of upper features are still not totally clear, and there could be a serious dry slot limiting snow in Northwester VA! Some people may really be surprised at smaller amounts than expected!

All for now!

1/21 DC/MD/VA WINTER STORM FIRST GUESS!

2005-01-20T21:27:00.000-08:00

Late but I wanted to digest for a while. I hope people can view web sites because to describe what I am thinking would be hard!

Highlighting major areas: (Think of regions around these points, not the location itself)

Hagerstown: 5-10 some 14+

Baltimore: 4-8 some 10+

Washington DC National: 4-8 some 10+

Washington DC Dulles: 4-8 some 10+

Stafford: 3-6 with icing issues

Fredericksburg: : 3-6 with icing issues

Charlottesville: 3-6 with icing issues

Richmond: 2-4 with icing concerns. Some concerns of second wave

Wakefield: 2-4 with some icing concerns. Risk of second wave snows

Norfolk: 2-4. Risk of second wave snowstorm

Roanoke: 2-4 with icing concerns

Lynchburg: 3-6 with icing issues

SEE MAP: http://www.midatlanticweather.com/Images/01_22_2005.gif for my First Guess!

Quick updates:

Size of Storm: Still in question! Second wave feature is a serious factor. Areas it hits may be in excess of 8 inches on top of what they have now. Initial storm has about what you see on the map for potential, BUT.. snow ratios may really push these totals up!

When: Saturday Afternoon and overnight. Sunday could be serious for Southeastern and eastern Virginia.

How Much: Kind of a guessing game now. My best guess is at http://www.midatlanticweather.com/Images/01_22_2005.gif

Concerns:

There are models starting to hint at a more substantial event. Is this a trend?
Location of upper features are still not totally clear
That secondary storm has serious potential and serious consequences for whomever it affects!

All for now!

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untitled

2005-01-20T14:32:00.000-08:00

2 Systems to deal with the next Few Days! First: Snow likely TONIGHT southern half of Virginia, maybe a brief period in the north! Next, the system this weekend is going to be VERY HARD to get specific on. Every time a get a sense of what is going to happen, enough changes to mess me up.

First System:

Size: 1-2 inches not out of the question.
When: Tonight
Where: Lynchburg to Richmond to Waldorf and south have the best chance for some accumulations. Dusting possible north of here.

Second System Update:

Size: Somewhat hard to tell.
When: SATURDAY.. I forgot to say this last time.
Where? Not 100% sure.

Models continue to give mixed signals. I still say snow will fall. I am not so sure I am clear on where axis of heavier snows will line up.

Concerns still exist:

1. Phasing could come back into play, which would likely re-appear today, BUT NOW is pretty unlikely. If so, mixing would get involved in more areas and higher amounts where snow was the primary precip type.

2. A coastal system will take over at some point. Though this could increase snow amounts, I have seen these systems become, what I like to call, Piedmont Robbers! The energy during transfer takes the heavy snow band and jumps the piedmont areas.

3. The Coastal system MAY be close enough for a backlash snow which could greatly increase amounts somewhere (Maybe east of I-95!). This will have to be watched

4. There may also be more Arctic air involved which would increase snow ratios. All that means would be more snow would accumulate from small amounts of precip.

All for now!

1/20 DC/VA/MD Weather Outlook and Snow ALERT

2005-01-20T05:35:00.000-08:00

I will watch for changes, but it is looking pretty certain that a significant but not historic system will affect the region.

Bottom line, the system that will come through does not appear to phase with other systems which had been important for a serious amount of precipitation. Without this phasing the amounts will be decent, but not historic.

Taking models right now (Obviously forecast will be adjusted if needed)

An area north of and including Roanoke to Richmond to Waldorf will likely see 4-8 inches with some bigger spots approaching 12 inches. Reason for some higher amounts in some areas will be the possibility of convective banding of snow or even thundersnow! There will be mixing concerns along the coast and southern regions after an initial period of snow.

Concerns:

Phasing could come back into play, which would likely re-appear today. If so, mixing would get involved in more areas and higher amounts where snow was the primary precip type.
A coastal system will take over at some point. Though this could increase snow amounts, I have seen these systems become, what I like to call, Piedmont Robbers! The energy during transfer takes the heavy snow band and jumps the piedmont areas.
The Coastal system MAY be close enough for a backlash snow which could greatly increase amounts somewhere (Maybe east of I-95!)

All for now!

Remember, Mid Atlantic Weather Forecasts ae not OFFICIAL forecasts and should never be used to make life saving or property saving decisions. Please cnsult with official government forecast offices or other weather outlets for these decisions!

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1/18 DC/MD/VA Weather Updates

2005-01-18T20:05:00.000-08:00

Storm Adjustments.

3 Systems will affect us! These are my thoughts

System One:

Size: Small clipper.

When: Tomorrow afternoon:

Where? North of a Charlottesville to Frederickburg to an Atlantic City line.

Amounts: There is possibility for as much as 1-2inches but 1 inch or less more likely. Further north you go, the higher the amounts. Western facing mountains could see 2-4 inches

System Two:

Size: Small clipper.

When: Thursday

Where? North of a Roanoke to Richmond to Salisbury Maryland line.

Amounts: 1 inch MAYBE, but northern areas. Western slopes of mountains 1-3 inches.

System Three: BIG ADJUSTMENTS! VERY PREMIMINARY THOUGHTS> ADJUSTMENTS LIKELY!

Size: Still significant, but likely not Historic

When: Saturday into Sunday

Where: A Shifting north trend through the day.

Southwest: I see a snow sleet mix almost area wide a quick transition to rain. Western Slopes. Piedmont, potential Ice Storm after an initial burst of snow.

Southeast: Some snow/sleet mix, quickly mixing with and changing to freezing rain and sleet and then rain. Some LIGHT snow accumulations, some ice. Western Areas in piedmont have to watch for Ice Storm. A turn over to rain likely..possible ending as a quick shot of snow.

Northeast: Snow.. mixing with sleet and freezing rain. Significant snow accumulations and the significant Ice.

Northwest. Snow.. Heavy at times.. Significant to even possible major accumulations, but a mix likely to cut down on snow amounts.

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1/18 DC/MD/VA Winter Weather Alert!

2005-01-18T05:09:00.000-08:00

Possibility of snow the next few days and again this weekend!

2 small system will affect the region the next 48 hours. A big Storm may affect us this weekend.

First System:

Size of system: A clipper, which usually have a hard time putting down accumulating snows east of the mountains, but this one should. These are quick hitters with snow rapidly starting and just as quickly moving on.

When? Tomorrow Afternoon

How Much? The most out of the system would be 1-3, though western Mountains may see 2-4 inches.

Where? Right now I would say anyone north of a Roanoke to Richmond To Salisbury line could see some dusting of snow and north of a Charlottesville to Fredericksburg to Ocean City Maryland could see 1-3 inches of snow.

Second System:

Size of System: Another clipper which looks weaker than the first. Very similar to the light snow this last Sunday night.

When? Thursday Afternoon.

How Much? More flurries to a dusting of snow is also possible

Where? A dusting in the 1-3 inch area outlined above.

Third System:

Size of System: This one could be very significant to Historic depending on which model you believe. I am leaning towards at least a Major Snowstorm for part of the area with the possibility of a Historic event. Keep in mind, we have several days to go!

When? Saturday Night through Early Monday

How Much? Amounts would be futile now, but the distinct possibility of 6 inches or more is there and some models would make this something we measure in feet!

Where? Most of the region should be affected, but coastal areas could easily mix or change over to Freezing rain or even some rain.

All for now!

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1/16 MD/VA/DC Light Snow Alert

2005-01-16T11:50:00.000-08:00

SORRY: Re-sent for correct date!

Light snow possible both in Southeastern VA and Northern Third of Virginia. Nothing looking too heavy. A dusting to an inch possible near the Pennsylvania border. Southeastern
Virginia should monitor the forecast today.

Longer term there appears a much more significant storm could affect us next weekend.

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1/6 MD/VA/DC Snow Alert

2005-01-16T11:48:00.000-08:00

Longer term there appears a much more significant storm could affect us next weekend.

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1/16 SNOW Alert!

2005-01-16T06:16:00.000-08:00

Light snow possible both in Southeastern VA and Northern Third of Virginia. Nothing looking too heavy. A dusting to an inch possible near the Pennsylvania border. Southeastern Virginia should monitor the forecast today. Longer term there appears a much more significant storm could affect us next weekend.

12/26 VA Snow. Far Eastern MD

2004-12-26T03:05:00.000-08:00

Right now southeastern VA is the bulls eye for heavier snow. The coast to about 25 miles inland will see a mix and areas east of Raliegh to Richmond to Dover will be in the most precip. Seeing 3-6 inches. CONCERNS of models missing several trends make me leary of writing this off for anyone from I-95 east! If I can I will post again! So stand guard DCA

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12/17 Brief Weather Outlook

2004-12-17T07:08:00.000-08:00

No real changes to yesterdayÂs posts. Since I am unable to go into long details due to time/work constraints you can go to http://www.midatlanticweather.com and read details from yesterday. Biggest headline is VERY COLD MONDAY with highs in the teens for the mountains, 20-25 degrees north, and 30-35 for the Southwest and Southeast. The Snow Flakes will still fly Sunday night, but not much concern. (Mountains could see 3Â+ , some more serious totals for Lake Effect Zones) Next big headline is that conditions will become favorable for a possible White Christmas!

That is about all the time I have now! I may post again during the Lunch Hour.

I will try and post a projected impact/accumulations map this weekend. I will alert if I do.

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12/16- Snow Alert Update for 12/19 - 12/20 Event

2004-12-16T05:43:00.000-08:00

12/16/04 8AM.

What?

So far, what I said yesterday still holds weight, but the last 24 hours have given some clues to how minor the event may be for us. For one, the models had missed a strengthening of the Pacific jet in the Pacific NW/ Western Canada. So what? Well, this will weaken the ridging in the western United States and that has a ripple effect. Namely, the strength of the eastern trough, or ability for a storm to really drop far south, correlates with the strength of a western United States ridge. This western US ridge is known as positive Pacific North American (+PNA) weather pattern ItsÂ development has been a major culprit in bringing the first cold to the Eastern US.

So yesterdayÂs alert:

Â A low will come out of Canada this weekend and go through reformation off the VA Coastline. It is a little unclear what happens exactly here, but experience says this system will only bring some light snow to the region and minor accumulations (mountains more, and Northern/Northeastern Maryland needs to pay a little more attention), if anything at allÂ

Comments:

Right now, flurries seem a more likely bet than accumulations. My caution to Northeastern Maryland is that a wrap around on the backside of the low may give a bit more snow, but wrap around bands are really hard to forecast!

When?

This event will commence Sunday evening and overnight.

Impact?

I continue to see a small accumulation possible in some areas. As I noted yesterday, the first flakes will be seen by many in the northern third of the region east of the mountains.

Many things can change between now and the actual event. I will update when possible

Summary:

Pretty much unchanged:

Snow flurries/showers will likely be seen in areas this Sunday that have not yet seen it this year, but, so far, the impact will likely be minor, but the storm has a lot of potential.

FYI.. Next weekÂs more favorable weather pattern may not be as strong based on the changes seen in the models the last 24 hours.

BUT.. I am still "Dreamin'"!

More to come!

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12/15 - Sunday: First Chance Of Snow DC/MD/VA

2004-12-15T06:40:00.000-08:00

Because there is always hype about storms (and I am as guilty as anyone hyping them!) I felt it prudent to send the first Winter Weather Alert for the region.

What?

A low will come out of Canada this weekend and go through reformation off the VA Coastline. It is a little unclear what happens exactly here, but experience says this system will only bring some light snow to the region and minor accumulations (mountains more, and Northern/Northeastern Maryland needs to pay a little more attention), if anything at all. Two models that are being watched closely have 2 different scenarios! One brings as much as a foot of snow to the Northern Virginia area and points north as well as the Mountains. Possible?? Maybe, but I think that it is way overdone and not catching the realistic location of precipitation and low pressure placement off the east coast.

When?

This event will commence Sunday evening and overnight.

Impact?

As I said, right now I would call for a small accumulation, though the first flakes will be seen by many in the northern third of the region east of the mountains. If the storm comes around to look more like the American model (the one with what appears less realistic), a lot of snow could fall for Virginia and Maryland and DC!

If you would like the possible scenarios, DT of wxrisk has some great graphics of possibilities. http://www.wxrisk.com/SECS/summary.htm . If you look Scenario 1 or 2 look more likely. Scenario 3 and 4 are similar to the model that really shows a lot of snow for the region.

Summary:

Snow will likely be seen in areas this Sunday that have not yet seen it this year, but, so far, the impact will likely be minor, but the storm has a lot of potential. If you happen to be going to New England, there could be a much as 1-3 FEET of snow from this storm in places!

FYI.. Next week we are in a more favorable weather scenario to see another storm, so just take this as a heads up! And yes.. "I'm Dreamin'"!

More to come!

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12/15 Winter Weather Threat

2004-12-15T06:07:00.000-08:00

Because there is always hype about storms (and I am as guilty as anyone hyping them!) I felt it prudent to send the first Winter Weather Alert for the region.

What?
A low will come out of Canada this weekend and go through reformation off the VA Coastline. It is a little unclear what happens exactly here, but experience says this system will only bring some light snow to the region and minor accumulations (mountains more, and Northern/Northeastern Maryland needs to pay a little more attention), if anything at all. Two models that are being watched closely have 2 different scenarios! One brings as much as a foot of snow to the Northern Virginia area and points north as well as the Mountains. Possible?? Maybe, but I think that it is way overdone and not catching the realistic location of precipitation and low pressure placement off the east coast.

When?
This event will commence Sunday evening and overnight.

Impact?
As I said, right now I would call for a small accumulation, though the first flakes will be seen by many in the northern third of the region east of the mountains. If the storm comes around to look more like the American model (the one with what appears less realistic), a lot of snow could fall for Virginia and Maryland and DC!

If you would like the possible scenarios, DT of wxrisk has some great graphics of possibilities. http://www.wxrisk.com/SECS/summary.htm . If you look Scenario 1 or 2 look more likely. Scenario 3 and 4 are similar to the model that really shows a lot of snow for the region.

Summary:
Snow will likely be seen in areas this Sunday that have not yet seen it this year, but, so far, the impact will likely be minor, but the storm has a lot of potential. If you happen to be going to New England, there could be a much as 1-3 FEET of snow from this storm in places!

FYI.. Next week we are in a more favorable weather scenario to see another storm, so just take this as a heads up! And yes.. "I'm Dreamin'"!

More to come!

Winter Weather Possibilities this weekend!

2004-12-14T06:23:00.000-08:00

Possibilities of 2 winter systems this Weekend:

There is a lot arguing against a big winter storm this weekend. The North Atlantic Oscillation and a very important 50/50 low pressure system are not in place. Both of these are key factors to a storm off the SE coast that rides up the coast instead of out to sea. That being said, there has been a steady shift in models to a storm system that could do any of the following:
1. Actually pass to the south. There could actually be some snow mixed in the rain for the far southern areas of Virginia.
2. Be a small storm, which should mean some snow involved, but I would be concerned that ambient temperatures would be too warm so more rain than snow, though a changeover would not be out of the question at the end of the event
3. A pretty big storm. One model put out quite a monster for the region, and though I think this type of storm may still be a mix east of I-95, a decent snow could occur just to the west of I-95 say from Fredericksburg northward.
4. Nothing at all!

Right now, I would say I am intrigued but not convinced of any scenario. The situation gives too many reasons for doubting anything will occur until the system is out to sea. There are actually 2 pieces of energy to watch. One Friday night and the other Sunday. If the lead does not develop much, it gives the latter a better chance to be stronger. Again, all said, the systems need to be watched.

Next week may be very favorable for more chances of wintry weather!

50/50 low information: http://www.wxrisk.com/SECS/5050/50-50.htm

NAO: http://www.geocities.com/donsutherland1/NAO.html

More to come!